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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tinnock Stellarb 2y 25 | P Singlewood — 18% R127 W23 P69 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 13 | 48 | 59 (5) | 62 (2) | 65 (2) | 52 (4) | 54 (4) | 56 (4) | 37 (5) | 27 (1) | - | - | 17 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 59 | 24 | 5 | 7/4F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Crooks Sambucab 1y 14 | S Caile — 17% R194 W33 P100 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 48 | 64 (4) | 77 (1) | 58 (3) | 58 (4) | 62 (3) | 52 (5) | - | - | - | - | 15 | 14 | - | 17 | 63 | 45 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ A Bit Of Meganb 1y 6 | S Ray — 15% R406 W62 P228 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 45 | 71 (2) | 51 (5) | 80 (1) | 79 (1) | 45 (5) | 79 (1) | 57 (3) | 58 (5) | 53 (3) | 66 (2) | 46 | 34 | 44 | 43 | 65 | 53 | 2 | 6/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Our Chiefd 2y 6 | D Winder — 17% R145 W24 P63 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 53 | 57 (4) | 64 (2) | 56 (4) | 81 (1) | 51 (5) | 63 (4) | 52 (4) | 60 (4) | 62 (4) | 59 (5) | 12 | 31 | 29 | 24 | 61 | 47 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Solway Aussied 2y 37 | D Little — 20% R113 W23 P70 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 58 | 77 (1) | 65 (2) | 42 (4) | 28 (4) | 24 (3) | 49 (2) | 69 (2) | 31 (2) | 36 (1) | 59 (3) | 26 | 25 | 31 | 46 | 61 | 42 | 6 | 4/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Withme Withoutmeb 1y 16 | C L Hardy — 18% R228 W42 P131 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 50 | 73 (2) | 70 (2) | 50 (6) | 50 (6) | 78 (1) | 53 (3) | 54 (4) | 74 (1) | 62 (2) | 69 (1) | 1 | 37 | 20 | 40 | 64 | 49 | 1 | 6/1 | - | |
The pick, backed by dual-model agreement: both the H3 Full Hybrid and XGB models select her as the top-rated runner in this race. She has 3 wins from 10 course and distance runs (30%) at Newcastle 480m and her recent A3 form is consistent — P73 pos 2, P70 pos 2 in her last two A3 480m runs here. She is a Closer with a performance average of 64 and pace consistency of 82, meaning she is reliable and finishes strongly. The structural obstacle is trap 6 (14.65% at A3, worst box), but the dual-model agreement is the overriding signal. When H3 and XGB both select the same dog despite a disadvantageous trap, it is a meaningful convergence.
Equal course record, superior performance and speed ratings, better structural trap than the pick. Both models prefer Withme Withoutme on consistency metrics — she is the form danger.
Best structural trap but no CD wins, poor speed figure, and recent form at different formats. Cannot be trusted at A3 level without flat 480m Newcastle evidence.
Progressive form with a recent A4 480m win. The class rise to A3 against proven A3 performers is the main concern. Lively improver but unproven at this level.
Previous A3 480m Newcastle winner but below recent peak. Moderate trap and lower performance than the top two. Can place but hard to prefer.
Recent A4 win and highest early pace — dangerous in the opening exchanges — but first A3 challenge at Newcastle limits confidence.
T6 worst at 14.65% at A3. Both H3 and XGB models agree on Withme Withoutme despite T6 draw. A Bit Of Megan is the form rival from T3.
T1:21.0% T2:19.1% T3:18.76% T4:18.44% T5:18.14% T6:14.65%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tinnock Stellar | 51 | 11 | All-Rounder |
2Crooks Sambuca | 49 | 57 | Closer |
3A Bit Of Megan | 40 | 73 | Closer |
4Our Chief | 54 | 43 | All-Rounder |
5Solway Aussie | 61 | 18 | Fader |
6Withme Withoutme | 46 | 57 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tinnock Stellar | 0.600 | 0.618 |
| 2 | Crooks Sambuca | — | 0.612 |
| 3 | A Bit Of Megan | — | 0.613 |
| 4 | Our Chief | — | 0.612 |
| 5 | Solway Aussie | 0.603 | 0.618 |
| 6 | Withme Withoutme | — | 0.612 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.