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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ballymac Neemsb 4y 24 | J J Fenwick — 19% R497 W96 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 46 | 73 (3) | 73 (2) | 58 (3) | 83 (1) | 77 (2) | 44 (6) | 72 (2) | 66 (4) | 59 (5) | 84 (1) | 41 | 52 | 27 | 28 | 63 | 55 | 6 | 6/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Simpson Sniperd 2y 21 | R Hale — 18% R62 W11 P31 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 51 | 70 (2) | 67 (3) | 77 (6) | 96 (2) | 61 (1) | 85 (5) | 71 (1) | 82 (3) | 52 (1) | - | 55 | 50 | 27 | 43 | 69 | 62 | 3 | 5/2JF | |
| 3 | ▶ Alnwick Harryd 3y 26 | A Harrison — 20% R515 W101 P311 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 41 | 67 (3) | 66 (4) | 81 (2) | 87 (1) | 70 (4) | 85 (2) | 72 (4) | 81 (2) | 87 (1) | 76 (2) | 59 | 53 | 42 | 44 | 75 | 67 | 1 | 6/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Opera Boyd 3y 16 | P Lithgow — 18% R28 W5 P17 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 47 | 51 (5) | 65 (3) | 65 (3) | 59 (5) | 86 (1) | 66 (2) | 60 (3) | 70 (2) | 71 (4) | 74 (2) | 37 | 45 | 51 | 42 | 71 | 61 | 5 | 10/3 | |
| 5 | ▶ Fabulous Adrianab 3y 36 | J T Edgar — 16% R479 W78 P270 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 59 | 87 (1) | 70 (2) | 46 (5) | 64 (4) | 90 (1) | 55 (5) | 65 (4) | 60 (4) | 70 (2) | 50 (6) | 2 | 43 | 31 | 39 | 69 | 55 | 4 | 5/2JF | |
| 6 | ▶ Crokers Lunab 3y 19 | J T Edgar — 16% R479 W78 P270 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 58 | 55 (5) | 87 (1) | 49 (4) | 64 (4) | 62 (4) | 19 (2) | 46 (6) | 71 (3) | 86 (1) | 72 (2) | 36 | 41 | 36 | 41 | 70 | 59 | 2 | 9/2 | |
The clear Pred1 selection with an h3Score of 85.7, a full 5.4 points clear of the next dog. The composite of 67 is the highest in the field and the model's historical data shows R1 winning 24.6% at these conditions — meaningful edge. Drawn in T3, which wins 17.3% — neither an advantage nor a liability. The central draw means Alnwick Harry needs to show enough early pace to avoid getting squeezed between the inside pair and the wider runners through the first bend. If he navigates that cleanly, the numbers say he should be too good for this field.
Danger — best trap position in the race, competitive composite, and positioned to capitalise on any first-bend trouble for the pick.
Danger — second on Pred1 with improving recent form. The wide draw is not a handicap at Newcastle and the home straight could be her friend.
Outsider — the numbers place Ballymac Neems well adrift of the principals and the draw offers no rescue.
Against — weakest trap position combined with mid-table ratings make this a difficult proposition.
Against — lowest composite in the field and a wide draw make the task too stiff at A2 level.
Fair track conditions with no strong structural bias. The composite model shows moderate predictive power at A2 grade over 480m. Alnwick Harry's h3Score advantage of 5.4 points over the second-rated dog is meaningful in a race where R1 wins nearly a quarter of the time.
T2 leads at 19.8% (504 runs) — no dominant trap. T4 lowest at 13.7%. Relatively even distribution across traps suggesting a fair draw.
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ballymac Neems | 48 | 49 | All-Rounder |
2Simpson Sniper | 34 | 100 | Closer |
3Alnwick Harry | 41 | 82 | Closer |
4Opera Boy | 52 | 51 | All-Rounder |
5Fabulous Adriana | 63 | 20 | Fader |
6Crokers Luna | 63 | 13 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.