The structural case is compelling: T1 is the best trap at 24.55% from 1,043 A7 runs, the speed rating of 51 is joint-highest in the field, and the Closer profile with closing speed 100 is perfectly suited to Hove's bumpy 500m where late runners thrive. Course and distance form is excellent — 3 wins and 3 places from 10 starts at Hove 500m, demonstrating genuine track knowledge. Recent form is entirely at A7-A8 level, meaning no grade inflation and no trial contamination — honest, settled form. The early pace of 36 means arriving mid-pack at the first bend, but with Tintreach Flo setting a suicidal pace from T5, the race should come back to the closers. The bend rating of 36 is modest but T1's rail advantage saves ground through every turn. In a race where the composite model is inverted (R2 beats R1), the stacking of best trap + joint best speed + perfect pace profile + proven C&D is the reliable pick signal.