The best course & distance record in the field — 4 wins and 6 places from 10 runs at Hove 500m (40% win, 60% place) — a decisive edge in a race where the composite is unreliable (just 14% P1 win rate at Hove middle grades). Field-best average performance (58) with a performance history of 67→67→48→53→45→67 showing peaks of 67 that prove genuine ability — three runs at 67 is consistency at the upper end. The 48 and 45 are off-days but at A8 where form is volatile, the peaks matter more than the troughs. Grade context: rising from A9/A10 where he was winning (1st A9, 1st A10 recently) — A8 is a step up but the C&D record includes all grades, and 40% from 10 runs is powerful evidence. Fader profile (EP 55, CS 29) means he'll push forward — at 500m this is a risk (Faders can weaken) but C&D evidence of 40% wins suggests he holds often enough. T5 at 20.95% (105r) is moderate. Speed 49 is below the field leaders (54) which is the main negative — at a track where speed-first picking is mandated, being 5 points behind is concerning. The C&D dominance (40% vs next best 20%) compensates.