The fastest dog in the race on the speed rating and the best average performance figure at 35, and she is coming off a winning run in D3 grade last time out. However, she is stepping up from D3 to D2 today — harder competition — and her best form in older runs was actually from D4 grades upward where she scored 55, 55, 66 from higher-grade races. The critical problem is trap four which wins just 9.8% at this track and distance — the worst draw in the field. At a 270 metre sprint where the draw dictates position into bend one, sitting in the worst box is a severe disadvantage. Speed alone cannot overcome a 9.8% structural trap penalty.