HAPPY 18TH OLIVER SHARRARD-WILLIAMS, LOVE FROM ALL THE FAMILY
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Southfield Aced 2yREP 4 | R Short — 22% R157 W34 P83 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 32 | 85 (1) | 64 (3) | 37 (1) | 62 (3) | 46 (5) | 65 (2) | 77 (4) | 71 (2) | 56 (2) | - | 55 | 40 | - | 41 | 67 | 55 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Moanteen Rubyb 2yREP 15 | J R Hall — 19% R350 W68 P188 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 42 | 60 (5) | 92 (1) | 73 (3) | 87 (1) | 53 (5) | 42 (6) | 78 (2) | 86 (1) | 56 (5) | 47 (5) | 62 | 34 | 23 | 36 | 69 | 54 | 3 | 6/4F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ashtons Ernied 2yREP 15 | S W Deakin — 15% R536 W78 P247 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 52 | 85 (1) | 72 (3) | 86 (1) | 62 (4) | 74 (1) | 28 (5) | 34 (2) | 37 (1) | 37 (5) | 11 (5) | 38 | 42 | - | 46 | 67 | 50 | 1 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Noels Spiderd 3yREP 24 | G B Ballentine — 15% R117 W17 P63 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 59 | 78 (3) | 68 (3) | 38 (3) | 38 (3) | 35 (3) | 47 (1) | 30 (5) | 35 (3) | 36 (3) | 37 (3) | 26 | 11 | - | 13 | 73 | 51 | 2 | 2/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Noels Supremed 2yN/RREP 24 | G B Ballentine — 15% R117 W17 P63 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 45 | 65 (2) | 78 (2) | 71 (4) | 86 (1) | 83 (1) | 62 (3) | 63 (2) | 75 (1) | 68 (1) | - | 1 | 51 | 24 | 49 | 73 | 50 | - | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Colliers Rund 2yREP 18 | H H Williams — 9% R11 W1 P6 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 51 | 69 (3) | 50 (6) | 83 (1) | 66 (3) | 56 (5) | 41 (6) | 77 (2) | 66 (2) | 52 (4) | 63 (4) | 20 | 20 | - | 27 | 63 | 47 | 5 | 6/1 | - | |
The selection here, and the pick almost writes itself once you overlay the trap data on the form. She draws trap five — the best structural position in this race at 30.8% from 39 runs — and brings a profile that fully justifies that opportunity. The average performance of 73 matches the composite top-rated dog exactly, and her form trajectory of 65, 78, 71, 86, 83, 61 from newest to oldest is outstanding — four of her last five open-race figures are above 70, including an 86 and an 83. She has won three times from eight course and distance runs here, a 37.5% strike rate that confirms she handles Dunstall Park over 480 metres at this level. As a Fader she will look to go forward and build a lead, and from the best trap on the card she has ideal conditions to do that. Trainer Ballentine at 12% is modest but the trap, form, and course record form an unusually consistent case.
Stepped up from A2 with an 85-rated win last time. Second-best trap position and solid trainer. A genuine danger to the selection.
Best average performance, strong course record, and exceptional peaks of 92 and 86. The below-average trap draw is the only knock. Main danger.
Exceptional course record and quality A2 form but now facing A1 competition from a below-average trap. Worth monitoring rather than backing.
Best rated dog in the race but worst trap at 7.3% from 41 runs. The structural disadvantage overrides the impressive numbers here.
Has produced good performances in the past but one course win from nine attempts at this combination and the weakest average in the field make her a difficult selection.
Trap 5 dominates at 30.8% from 39 runs. Trap 4 is disastrously poor at 7.3% from 41 runs — the worst structural draw in the race. Composite Rank 1 wins 25.9% at A1 grade, suggesting the model works well here but must be overridden when the top pick draws trap 4.
T1:25.7% T2:16.7% T3:12.8% T4:7.3% T5:30.8% T6:20.0%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Southfield Ace | 53 | 25 | All-Rounder |
2Moanteen Ruby | 47 | 75 | Closer |
3Ashtons Ernie | 30 | 78 | Closer |
4Noels Spider | 86 | 0 | Fader |
5Noels Supreme | 73 | 0 | Fader |
6Colliers Run | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 450m | 480m | 500m | 660m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southfield Ace | 0.596 | 0.630 | 0.604 | — | — |
| 2 | Moanteen Ruby | — | — | 0.603 | — | — |
| 3 | Ashtons Ernie | 0.602 | — | 0.605 | 0.645 | — |
| 4 | Noels Spider | 0.600 | — | 0.597 | — | — |
| 6 | Colliers Run | — | — | 0.603 | — | 0.620 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.