The model selection in this A5 race, with a form profile that requires careful interpretation. Recent form newest to oldest reads P37, P63, P52, P62, P59, P79 — the most recent P37 is a clear underperformance, but the five runs before that are consistently in the P52-P79 range, with the P79 demonstrating genuine high-class ability at A5 level. That P79 is the kind of form figure that wins A5 races outright, and if Noirs Regina returns anywhere near that level today, she is the class runner in this field. As a Closer with a closing speed ratio of 60, she will be produced from behind the pace in the final bend. The model looks through the poor recent run to the underlying ability demonstrated by the P79 and the consistent 50s-60s form.