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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Skilled Princed 1yREP 16 | J M Liles — 19% R419 W80 P222 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 49 | 49 (5) | 32 (6) | 48 (3) | 62 (1) | 46 (5) | 59 (1) | 90 (1) | 27 (6) | 42 (2) | 41 (3) | 44 | 50 | - | 14 | 51 | 42 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Ballykilduff Gemb 2yREP 18 | C Condon — 10% R40 W4 P21 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 39 | 69 (3) | 82 (3) | 66 (5) | 67 (5) | 87 (3) | 66 (3) | 81 (1) | 57 (4) | 65 (4) | 32 (4) | 41 | 33 | 33 | 31 | 72 | 53 | 1 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ballymac Locab 4yREP 36 | A M Kibble — 24% R193 W47 P117 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 58 | 63 (3) | 63 (1) | 48 (2) | 76 (5) | 58 (6) | 100 (1) | 100 (1) | 71 (2) | 83 (2) | 78 (5) | 27 | 28 | - | - | 70 | 48 | 3 | 10/11F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Antigua Bubbled 3yREP 15 | A Welch — 13% R319 W41 P153 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 51 | 76 (1) | 67 (2) | 65 (3) | 58 (4) | 76 (1) | 52 (5) | 50 (5) | 69 (2) | 61 (3) | 62 (2) | 35 | 22 | 26 | 41 | 65 | 50 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Fabulous Martinib 1yREP 12 | L G Tuffin — 25% R282 W70 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 69 | 78 (1) | 73 (1) | 63 (2) | 59 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 61 | 36 | - | 49 | 70 | 59 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Chased 3yN/R 23 | N J Deas — 17% R447 W75 P235 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 2 | 47 | 23 (5) | 55 (1) | 47 (2) | 35 (4) | 32 (5) | 26 (2) | 26 (3) | 24 (3) | 21 (5) | 27 (3) | 31 | 20 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 28 | - | - | - | |
Has the highest average performance rating in this A3 field at 72 — a clear lead over a tightly grouped rest of the field — and draws from the near-side trap 2 at Towcester 500m, which has produced 19.9% winners from 2,492 runs. One win from five at Towcester 500m is a modest course record in percentage terms, but the consistency of her form figures is what stands out: performances in the 60s and 70s throughout recent runs with no significant regression. The model's predictive score rates her ahead of Fabulous Martini despite Martini's higher composite, with the performance rating and draw combination driving the selection. Tentative confidence reflects the narrow margins in this field.
Best composite and improving form, but worst trap draw is the critical negative. Clear danger to the selection.
Best draw but distance suitability concern and performance level below the top three.
Strong form figures but distance suitability of zero is a near-fatal flaw at this trip length.
Workable course record but trainer win rate is the lowest in the field and performance ranks below the top three.
Weakest on composite and performance. Outclassed on paper at A3 grade.
Ballykilduff Gem leads on average performance at 72 and draws from second box. Fabulous Martini has higher composite and improving form trajectory but drawn in worst trap 5. Performance model drives this pick over the composite.
T1:22.2% T2:19.9% T3:17.6% T4:20.1% T5:17.1% T6:17.4%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Skilled Prince | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Ballykilduff Gem | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Ballymac Loca | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Antigua Bubble | 39 | 89 | Closer |
5Fabulous Martini | 61 | 11 | Fader |
6Swift Chase | 100 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 450m | 460m | 500m | 650m | 660m | 712m | 750m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skilled Prince | 0.600 | — | 0.589 | 0.600 | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | Ballykilduff Gem | 0.610 | — | — | 0.593 | — | — | 0.616 | 0.652 |
| 3 | Ballymac Loca | — | 0.606 | 0.588 | 0.593 | 0.608 | 0.625 | 0.624 | — |
| 4 | Antigua Bubble | — | — | — | 0.595 | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | Fabulous Martini | — | — | — | 0.596 | — | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.