Cazzers Ellie is the classiest dog in this race on recent form. She won well at A8 last time and had previously scored at A8 and A9 level, and the step up to A7 looks within her capabilities based on recent trajectory. She has the best early pace in the field and should be prominent from the stripes, which is an advantage even on Monmore's fair 480-metre layout. The fade profile is the main concern — she weakens through the later stages — but her class advantage means even a weakening lead could be enough. Trap 6 at 16.9% is neutral and doesn't help or hinder. The honest concern is that trap 1's 25.1% dominance is the single strongest structural signal on the card, and Longrange Rio sits in it — but Cazzers Ellie has a meaningful class edge over him that should compensate.