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The David Fitzgibbon Memorial Open 525 Stake Semi-Final
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Montana Secretd 2y 15 | John A. Linehan — 33% R3 W1 P2 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 54 (3) | 47 (5) | 32 (6) | 53 (2) | 57 (2) | 51 (4) | 46 (3) | - | - | - | 8 | - | - | - | 48 | 36 | 5 | 1/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Noon Balladb 1y 26 | Kieran Lynch — 50% R6 W3 P4 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 97 (1) | 63 (5) | 39 (5) | 52 (5) | 55 (2) | 41 (6) | 96 (1) | 80 (2) | 89 (1) | 87 (1) | 30 | 60 | - | 63 | 68 | 52 | 3 | 12/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Confident Hugod 1y 25 | James Kelleher — 14% R7 W1 P5 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 49 (5) | 40 (5) | 95 (1) | 72 (4) | 77 (3) | 40 (6) | 93 (1) | 63 (3) | 56 (6) | 77 (3) | - | 4 | - | 11 | 64 | 40 | 4 | 20/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Bockos Goldd 2y 25 | Graham Holland — 20% R10 W2 P6 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 57 (2) | 47 (6) | 72 (1) | 72 (1) | 72 (1) | 72 (1) | 100 (1) | 57 (2) | 50 (2) | 41 (6) | - | - | - | 30 | 64 | 39 | 2 | 1/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Kilgraney Cashd 1y 32 | Thomas Buggy — 33% R3 W1 P1 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 55 (4) | 59 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 57 | 21 | 6 | 10/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Ardfert Samd 2y 33 | Brendan Maunsell — 33% R3 W1 P1 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 44 (5) | 68 (1) | 78 (3) | 93 (1) | 92 (1) | 93 (1) | 92 (1) | 97 (1) | 81 (2) | 88 (1) | - | - | - | 60 | 77 | 40 | 1 | 6/1 | |
Noon Ballad is the clear pick based on the combination of the highest single-race performance in the field (97-perf A0 win on 30 May in 28.69s), the strongest track and distance suitability scores in the race (track 60, distance 63), and a T2 draw that carries a 17.0% win rate from 894 runs at Curraheen. She won at A0 level — the highest grade — at this exact venue last time out, confirming her ability at the top standard. Her suitability scores of 60 for track and 63 for distance are significantly higher than any rival, indicating she has an established and proven affinity for Curraheen's conditions and 525m trip. Trap suitability of 30 from T2 is moderate. Prior runs of 63, 39, 52 and 55 in earlier months show she is not consistently at the 97-perf level, but the recent A0 win on this course is the most relevant data point. She steps back into AA0 company today from A0, which represents a class relief.
Highest avg perf (77) and exceptional March form (93, 92 perfs) but very poor May run (44 perf). Danger if returning to best but Noon Ballad's recent A0 win is the more reliable form reference.
DOMINANT draw but worst form record in the field at avg perf 48 with perfs of 32, 47, 53, 54, 57. Draw advantage cannot overcome consistently modest ability.
95-perf A2 win but followed by 40 and 49 perfs with very poor Curraheen suitability. Form reversal and poor track fit make him unreliable despite his potential.
Three 72-perf April wins show consistency but perf ceiling is modest and recent form slipped to 57. Zero suitability scores except distance. Not in winning calculations against Noon Ballad.
DEAD trap, lengthy absence since April, only two modest runs at perfs of 55 and 59. The most disadvantaged runner in the race. Not competitive.
T1 DOMINANT at 21.6% from 893 runs benefits Montana Secret on draw but her form does not match the structural advantage. T5 DEAD at 13.3% from 905 runs disadvantages Kilgraney Cash. LOW SEPARATION means Noon Ballad's 97-perf A0 win and outstanding track/distance suitability are decisive.
T1:21.6% T2:17.0% T3:15.5% T4:16.5% T5:13.3% T6:15.5%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.