| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Swift Paxtond 3y 23 | J J Luckhurst — 15% R283 W43 P134 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 51 | 50 (6) | 50 (5) | 82 (1) | 61 (3) | 60 (5) | 72 (1) | 74 (2) | 58 (4) | 50 (5) | 60 (4) | 33 | 33 | 21 | 30 | 66 | 51 | 2 | 6/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Swift Factorb 2y 7 | D P Brabon — 23% R361 W82 P213 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 44 | 67 (2) | 86 (1) | 69 (2) | 78 (3) | 57 (5) | 77 (2) | 83 (2) | 88 (1) | 49 (5) | 85 (1) | 58 | 72 | - | 43 | 59 | 59 | 4 | 10/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Westwood Bettyb 2y 6 | B D O'sullivan — 18% R544 W99 P302 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | 40 | 74 (2) | 91 (1) | 77 (3) | 80 (2) | 77 (2) | 74 (2) | 59 (4) | 96 (1) | 34 (4) | 40 (1) | 35 | 47 | 26 | 49 | 50 | 46 | 5 | 4/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Ghost Of Winterb 1yN/R 28 | L E Morrison — 23% R198 W45 P122 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 49 | 83 (1) | 97 (1) | 98 (1) | 62 (3) | 65 (4) | 83 (1) | 53 (5) | 66 (3) | 64 (4) | 47 (6) | 44 | 37 | - | 26 | 63 | 52 | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Waikiki Darrend 2y 8 | S Mavrias — 17% R242 W42 P134 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 56 | 86 (1) | 53 (6) | 87 (1) | 46 (5) | 67 (4) | 75 (2) | 66 (2) | 47 (6) | 39 (5) | 51 (5) | 42 | 48 | 37 | 37 | 69 | 57 | 1 | 2/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Glimmerb 2y 16 | D P Brabon — 23% R361 W82 P213 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 57 | 66 (2) | 71 (2) | 64 (3) | 42 (5) | 46 (5) | 52 (5) | - | - | - | - | 25 | 60 | 10 | 26 | 57 | 47 | 3 | 11/10F | |
The condition data here is clear: at A2, the composite top-ranked dog wins just 16.89% — unusually low. The fastest dog wins 20.24% and even the second-fastest wins 20.63%. Speed is what matters at this grade. Waikiki Darren has the best performance average in the field at 69, the joint-best speed at 54, the best bend rating at 56, and an All-Rounder pace (early pace 54) that means he'll be prominent through the first bend. He's dropping from A1 where his recent form reads 5th, 2nd, 1st, 1st — two wins at the grade above this. That's a genuine class edge. Trap 5 at A2 wins 16.09% from 174 runs — below average structurally, which is the one negative. Trainer Mavrias at 18% is below average. Suitability is moderate (track 48, distance 37, trap 42, class 37). What makes this the pick is the combination of top performance, joint-top speed, best bend rating, and A1-winning form dropping to A2. Four of the top five signals in the condition data all favour this dog — the only weakness is the trap, and at 16.09% that's below average but not terrible.
DANGER: Strong A2 credentials but Trap 1's 14.95% is a structural penalty that caps his chances. If the draw wasn't against him, he'd be in contention.
DANGER: Strong speed and bend credentials with Brabon as trainer, drawn in a decent trap. The 12-point performance gap to Waikiki Darren is the concern, but the pace profile could see Glimmer lead and hold on if the class dogs don't close quickly enough.
Strong trainer and excellent track suitability but the speed deficit is too large — second-slowest in the field. Open-race form (two 6ths from last 3 graded runs) is concerning.
Fastest dog by a distance but zero early pace from the worst trap at a first-bend track. The speed is real but the delivery mechanism — closing from last through the worst draw — is structurally flawed here.
Best trap but slowest speed and poor recent form. Class suitability of 0 says this dog is below A2 level. The trap advantage can't overcome being the slowest runner.
Composite top-ranked is UNRELIABLE here at just 16.89% — the second and third-rated dogs win more often. Speed top-ranked at 20.24% is the stronger signal. Trap 4 best at 22.46%. Andreas 36.36% from 22 A2 runs is a standout trainer signal.
T1:14.95% T2:19.43% T3:14.58% T4:22.46% T5:16.09% T6:18.96%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 491m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Swift Paxton | 52 | 54 | All-Rounder |
2Swift Factor | 48 | 46 | All-Rounder |
3Westwood Betty | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Ghost Of Winter | 47 | 66 | Closer |
5Waikiki Darren | 54 | 34 | All-Rounder |
6Swift Glimmer | 54 | 20 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.