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Welcome to Star Pelaw Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ More Sufferanceb 3y 16 | R Thompson — 14% R146 W20 P68 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 52 | 25 (2) | 17 (5) | 31 (5) | 41 (3) | 48 (3) | 20 (5) | 21 (4) | 42 (3) | 49 (2) | 20 (5) | 25 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 41 | 36 | 3 | 1/1F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Caseys Gastond 2y 7 | S Atkinson — 19% R238 W45 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 48 | 44 (4) | 37 (3) | 44 (3) | 35 (5) | 49 (3) | 23 (4) | 46 (4) | 44 (5) | 63 (1) | 52 (3) | 9 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 44 | 39 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Caseys Mollyb 4y 18 | S Atkinson — 19% R238 W45 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 56 | 46 (4) | 46 (4) | 42 (4) | 29 (6) | 30 (5) | 37 (4) | 37 (4) | 45 (3) | 33 (5) | 58 (2) | 30 | 23 | 18 | 10 | 40 | 45 | 1 | 6/5 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Untold Francd 3y 16 | K A Kennedy — 24% R92 W22 P57 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 30 | 36 | 20 (3) | 30 (6) | 33 (5) | 21 (3) | 27 (1) | 39 (4) | 20 (2) | 24 (2) | 19 (3) | 21 (3) | 9 | 15 | - | 9 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 10/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Come On Gingerd 3y 5 | R Thompson — 14% R146 W20 P68 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 47 | 45 (3) | 38 (5) | 44 (4) | 30 (4) | 40 (4) | 48 (2) | 49 (3) | 47 (4) | 43 (4) | 41 (5) | 7 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 42 | 37 | 4 | 8/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Last To Firstb 2yN/R 17 | C M Dibb — 13% R323 W41 P151 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 53 | 34 (5) | 44 (4) | 38 (4) | 53 (2) | 43 (3) | 59 (2) | 42 (4) | 44 (6) | 42 (5) | 52 (3) | 6 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 44 | 36 | - | - | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | More Sufferance | 26.93 | 27.26 | 27.43 | 50 | +0.50 | Rail draw | |
| 2 | Caseys Gaston | 26.92 | 27.31 | 27.20 | 53 | +0.28 | C&D form | |
| 3 | Caseys Molly | 26.79 | 27.39 | 27.18 | 53 | +0.39 | Fades late | |
| 4 | Untold Franc | 27.46 | 27.62 | 27.74 | 30 | +0.28 | Slowest in field | |
| 5 | Come On Ginger | 26.95 | 27.37 | 27.12 | 52 | +0.17 | Strong trap | |
| 6 | Last To First | 26.70 | 27.09 | 27.47 | 56 | +0.77 | Fastest, wide draw |
Star Pelaw is built for front-runners — the shortest run to the first bend of any track in the country and the highest rate of all-the-way winners in UK racing. Trap one is usually the standout draw here overall (21.7%), but in tonight's A7 grade specifically it's traps four and five doing the damage at 23.4% each, with trap six the one to be wary of at just 14.74%. Last To First has the fastest times and sharpest early pace in the race and would ordinarily be first to the bend, but that outside box has been a genuine drag on results at this grade and trip — he may lead outright or get squeezed for room before the turn. Caseys Gaston matches the sharpest recent form in the race from a trap that's held up fine in A7 company, giving him every chance of racing on terms without the draw working against him. More Sufferance from the pole should also get a look in early, while Caseys Molly is fast to the bend but has a habit of fading once things get serious late on.
Matches the best average form in this field and was doing exactly this last time out — fourth in this same A7 grade at this same 435 metre trip only ten days ago, so the conditions are nothing new. Trap two has held up reasonably well for this grade here, sitting mid-pack in the win percentages rather than the danger zone traps six can be. Versatile early pace means he can race handy without needing the rail, and with recent runs regularly hitting the mid-40s, this looks the level he competes at consistently rather than a flash in the pan.
The quickest dog in the race on the clock and the one with the most electric early pace, which matters enormously at a track that produces more all-the-way winners than anywhere else in the country. The concern is the draw — trap six has managed only 14.74% in this A7 grade over this trip, the weakest of the six boxes, and the widest gate makes it hard to use that raw speed before the field converges on the bend. If he gets across cleanly he's fast enough to lead the lot of them; if he gets shuffled wide, the run is effectively over inside the first few strides.
Drawn in the box that's traditionally been the strongest at Star Pelaw and still holds up reasonably in this A7 grade at 21.54%. Form has been modest of late — a fourth from six last time out — with a peak of 48 a few runs back showing there's a bit more in the tank. The rail draw gives him a fair chance of racing on terms with the pace-setters even without being the fastest in the field.
Fast into the first bend with the best early speed figures of anyone in this line-up but tends to lose ground in the closing stages, a pattern that's shown up consistently across her recent form. Her last two starts have both produced her season-best 46, so the ability is there, but trap three has managed only 17.44% in this grade and her finishing weakness is the bigger worry with this level of early pace elsewhere in the race.
By some way the slowest recorded times in this field and hasn't reached 40 on any of his last six outings. Draws into one of the two best-performing boxes for this grade at 23.4%, and the trainer has the best strike rate of anyone represented here at 22%, but the pace numbers make it hard to see him living with this speed.
Drawn in the other strong box for this A7 grade at Star Pelaw (23.4%) and has been competitive without threatening to win, finishing third last time out in this same grade and trip. Early pace is respectable rather than outstanding, and with the two fastest dogs in the field elsewhere, he looks more of an each-way sort than a winning threat.
Key insight: Speed Rank 1 wins 31.16% here versus Composite Rank 1's 25.34% — speed is the stronger signal in this A7 grade at Star Pelaw. Traps four and five are the best draws for this specific grade, a reversal from trap one's usual overall dominance; trap six remains the structural weak point.
T1:21.54% T2:21.35% T3:17.44% T4:23.4% T5:23.4% T6:14.74%
523 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 435m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1More Sufferance | 51 | 49 | All-Rounder |
2Caseys Gaston | 49 | 53 | All-Rounder |
3Caseys Molly | 55 | 33 | Fader |
4Untold Franc | 39 | 51 | All-Rounder |
5Come On Ginger | 45 | 54 | All-Rounder |
6Last To First | 58 | 47 | Front Runner |
Only runs at exactly 435m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (435m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 245m | 435m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | More Sufferance | 0.632 | 0.627 |
| 2 | Caseys Gaston | 0.630 | 0.628 |
| 3 | Caseys Molly | — | 0.630 |
| 4 | Untold Franc | 0.637 | 0.635 |
| 5 | Come On Ginger | — | 0.629 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.