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Jenningsbet Stayers Trophy ( Heat 1)
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Burgess Sophiab 3y 25 | N F Carter — 18% R257 W46 P137 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 45 | 63 (5) | 82 (3) | 80 (4) | 71 (5) | 72 (6) | 56 (6) | 76 (5) | 68 (4) | 86 (2) | 100 (1) | 23 | 31 | - | 9 | 74 | 45 | 4 | 16/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Listen Rosieb 2y 25 | M P Brown — 20% R393 W79 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 50 | 79 (2) | 75 (5) | 74 (6) | 74 (3) | 78 (3) | 27 (4) | 66 (4) | 28 (1) | 29 (5) | - | 16 | 33 | - | 18 | 75 | 45 | 3 | 20/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Aero Pepinillod 3y 45 | R Taberner — 20% R746 W151 P423 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 69 | 100 | 100 (1) | 82 (3) | 91 (2) | 74 (4) | 67 (4) | 62 (4) | 92 (3) | 87 (2) | 67 (4) | 56 (5) | 33 | 52 | 6 | 30 | 82 | 50 | 1 | 2/9F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Scarty Melb 1yREP 23 | R M Emery — 11% R123 W14 P60 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 33 | 32 | 57 (4) | 54 (4) | 67 (2) | 63 (6) | 52 (6) | 49 (5) | 63 (5) | 33 (5) | 54 (4) | 43 (5) | 1 | 10 | - | - | 56 | 27 | 6 | 50/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Good Rainbowb 3yREP 25 | B D O'sullivan — 19% R526 W99 P294 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 99 | 75 (4) | 100 (1) | 76 (4) | 51 (5) | 69 (3) | 89 (1) | 65 (3) | 74 (3) | 59 (4) | 61 (5) | 33 | 57 | - | 46 | 75 | 58 | 2 | 11/4 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Grouchos Boggerb 2yREP 25 | R M Emery — 11% R123 W14 P60 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 30 | 82 (3) | 64 (2) | 59 (3) | 81 (2) | 68 (3) | 63 (3) | 46 (6) | 79 (4) | 60 (6) | 54 (5) | - | - | 7 | 8 | 68 | 35 | 5 | 33/1 | - | |
Won last time out at OR grade over 664 metres with a rated 100 performance — an outstanding effort that puts him at the top of the recent form book for this trip. His form over 664 metres shows a consistent upward trajectory: rated 62, 67, 74, 91, 82, and then 100 in his most recent start. He has the best speed rating in the field and the best first bend rating of any runner in the race — the combination of early pace and first-bend ability at a circuit where the bend matters is powerful. He is an All-Rounder who generates pace throughout the race rather than just early or late, which is the ideal profile for this distance on a track with a testing first bend. The course and distance record is limited (one run, one win) but that single run was a maximum-rated performance against OR-grade opposition. Trap 3 wins 17.65% in OR3 conditions — moderate — but the speed rank advantage (speed rank 1 wins 31.82% at this distance and grade) strongly justifies the selection. This is the horse to beat.
Won OR 664m two races back with a 100-rated performance. Best bend in field alongside selection. Main danger.
Best structural trap but repeatedly fails at this course and distance. The trap advantage needs the right dog, and this one hasn't delivered.
Worst trap in these conditions with just 5.88% success rate. Very difficult to recommend.
Wrong distance profile, poor trap, and weak speed rating. Very hard to see her winning here.
Trap 6 has produced zero winners from 13 runs at this distance and grade. Structurally impossible to recommend.
Small sample (87 runs) but dramatic trap bias — T1 wins 35.71% (5 from 14), T6 has zero wins. Speed rank 1 wins 31.82% — the strongest single signal. Composite rank barely predictive at 19.35%.
T1:35.71% T2:5.88% T3:17.65% T4:7.69% T5:15.38% T6:0%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 664m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Burgess Sophia | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Listen Rosie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Aero Pepinillo | 100 | 100 | All-Rounder |
4Scarty Mel | 0 | 0 | Fader |
5Good Rainbow | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Grouchos Bogger | 100 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 664m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (664m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 305m | 480m | 483m | 491m | 500m | 525m | 575m | 659m | 664m | 680m | 750m | 790m | 835m | 890m | 942m | 946m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burgess Sophia | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.619 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.638 |
| 2 | Listen Rosie | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.633 | 0.618 | — | 0.607 | 0.570 | 0.571 | 0.683 | — | — |
| 3 | Aero Pepinillo | — | 0.604 | — | 0.596 | 0.584 | — | 0.615 | — | 0.611 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | Scarty Mel | 0.605 | — | — | 0.613 | — | 0.576 | — | — | 0.622 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.636 | — |
| 5 | Good Rainbow | — | — | 0.626 | 0.607 | — | — | — | — | 0.617 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | Grouchos Bogger | — | — | — | 0.610 | — | — | — | — | 0.621 | 0.625 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.