| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Millibucksb 3y 7 | S A Saberton — 23% R394 W90 P253 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 29 (3) | 28 (4) | 40 (1) | 32 (2) | 31 (2) | 29 (3) | 34 (3) | 32 (3) | 29 (4) | 29 (3) | 47 | 49 | 32 | 49 | 31 | 39 | 3 | 7/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Glenvale Sashab 2yN/R 17 | S A Saberton — 23% R394 W90 P253 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 74 (1) | 50 (2) | 26 (3) | 61 (3) | 57 (4) | 24 (1) | 53 (4) | 59 (4) | 31 (2) | 30 (2) | 53 | 40 | - | 42 | 50 | 49 | - | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Fortunate Roseb 4y 29 | S A Saberton — 23% R394 W90 P253 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 73 (1) | 65 (2) | 47 (5) | 64 (3) | 67 (2) | 75 (1) | 65 (2) | 47 (4) | 38 (1) | 35 (1) | 55 | 46 | 30 | 52 | 36 | 43 | 1 | 6/4F | |
| 4 | ▶ Early Paceb 2y 17 | D R E Ellerker — 20% R684 W138 P359 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 27 (4) | 24 (6) | 19 (4) | 33 (2) | 33 (2) | 24 (4) | 26 (4) | 34 (3) | 39 (1) | 34 (1) | 38 | 50 | 31 | 52 | 30 | 36 | 4 | 3/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Mabels Ribbonsd 2y 18 | D R E Ellerker — 20% R684 W138 P359 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 30 | - | 32 (1) | 19 (5) | 22 (4) | 22 (5) | 21 (5) | 24 (1) | 15 (4) | 25 (2) | 27 (2) | 24 (4) | 39 | 45 | - | 47 | 24 | 32 | 5 | 25/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Alno Sueb 2y 28 | D R E Ellerker — 20% R684 W138 P359 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 65 (1) | 26 (3) | 15 (4) | 27 (4) | 18 (3) | 17 (2) | 28 (5) | 16 (2) | 26 (1) | 27 (3) | 72 | 45 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 45 | 2 | 11/4 | |
Glenvale Sasha is the standout performance leader with a rating of 50, creating 14-point separation above the field. This is exceptional for a 238m D3 race. However, the suitability profile raises concerns: class suitability is zero, indicating systematic mismatch with D3 grade. This is paradoxical—a dog performing at the highest level shows explicit unsuitability for the grade it competes in. Track (40) and distance (42) suitability are moderate. Trap 2 (17.1%) is slightly below average. The critical question is whether Glenvale Sasha's performance advantage (50 vs 36, 34) is large enough to overcome zero class suitability. At D3 level, where grade-specific adaptation matters, this is a genuine risk. However, performance advantages of this magnitude (14 points) historically carry weight. The recommendation is conditional: Glenvale Sasha likely wins but faces elevated uncertainty due to grade mismatch. Alternative runners (Fortunate Rose, Alno Sue) offer superior grade adaptation if class suitability proves critical.
Dangerous secondary. Superior grade adaptation (class 30 vs 0) to performance leader. Trap 3 advantage (19.8%) compensates for 14-point performance gap. Viable upset candidate.
Dangerous threat. Trap 6 advantage (23.5%) plus exceptional trap suitability (72) could overcome class weakness. Monitor early race; three-way competitive scenario (Glenvale Sasha vs Fortunate Rose vs Alno Sue).
Secondary tier. Moderate performance (31) and weak trap positioning. Likely 3rd-4th finisher.
Unlikely to feature. Low performance (30) combined with neutral trap. Avoid.
Non-competitive. Multiple disqualifying factors. Avoid.
D3 grade shows stronger performance stability than D4-D5 but weaker than A grades. Glenvale Sasha (50) leads by 14 points but class suitability (0) is disqualifying concern. Fortunate Rose (36) and Alno Sue (34) offer superior grade adaptation. Trap 6 (23.5%) advantage held by Alno Sue (72 trap suitability) creates competitive three-way scenario. Glenvale Sasha's performance may overcome grade risk, but secondary options are viable.
T1: 18.2% | T2: 17.1% | T3: 19.8% | T4: 17.3% | T5: 15.7% | T6: 23.5%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 238m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.