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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Maybe Sydneyd 3y 27 | S J L Lapidge — 17% R328 W57 P188 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 66 | 45 (5) | 39 (5) | 67 (4) | 83 (1) | 63 (4) | 57 (3) | 85 (1) | 81 (1) | 67 (2) | 85 (1) | 51 | 45 | - | 15 | 62 | 39 | 2 | 11/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Heathmill Barrond 4y 45 | D Calvert — 17% R568 W94 P330 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 24 (5) | 32 (3) | 42 (1) | 40 (1) | 34 (3) | 24 (5) | 41 (1) | 35 (3) | 36 (2) | 31 (3) | 44 | 35 | 38 | 37 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Savana Sodab 4y 34 | L B Pruhs — 16% R139 W22 P83 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 38 | 31 (3) | 72 (2) | 60 (2) | 58 (4) | 54 (5) | 68 (3) | 54 (4) | 76 (1) | 51 (5) | 41 (1) | 24 | - | 27 | - | 56 | 32 | 3 | 16/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Shackelton Aced 3y 9 | S Watson — 30% R421 W126 P291 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | - | 47 (1) | 47 (1) | 38 (4) | 34 (4) | 46 (1) | 40 (2) | 29 (1) | 46 (4) | 42 (1) | - | 60 | 65 | 40 | 58 | 42 | 47 | 1 | 1/5F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Walter Jezabelled 3y 25 | K C Robins — 38% R13 W5 P9 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 37 | 15 | 41 (6) | 52 (5) | 57 (5) | 68 (4) | 68 (3) | 48 (2) | 74 (4) | 67 (2) | 79 (3) | - | 36 | - | - | - | 58 | 22 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
The pick of the card based on an exceptional course and distance record — a 60% win rate at exactly this trip in D2 grade at Doncaster 275m from trap 4 is simply outstanding and cannot be ignored. The structural data shows trap 4 is the weakest remaining box in D2 grade at 17.2%, which would normally be a red flag. But individual course form of this quality overrides general trap statistics. Dogs with a 60% win rate at a specific course and distance over a meaningful sample are outliers in the truest sense — they have found something about this track that the model numbers don't fully capture. The composite puts him second overall, and with the danger being his only real rival on the model figures, backing the specialist here is a strong, informed bet.
Composite leader, solid draw, fast pace profile. The strongest opponent on the figures — the main danger if the pick's course magic is absent today.
Below-average draw and composite. Needs the front two to underperform.
Best remaining structural draw but needs composite improvement to challenge. Place candidate.
Average draw, lowest composite in the field. An outside chance at best.
Trap 5 (best at 25.0%) is a non-runner. Trap 4 is the weakest remaining draw at 17.2% but Shackelton Ace holds a 60% course and distance win rate from this exact box — a genuine override case based on exceptional individual course form.
T1:19.2% T2:22.5% T3:23.1% T4:17.2% T5:25.0% T6:21.0%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 275m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (275m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 220m | 253m | 275m | 388m | 450m | 483m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maybe Sydney | — | — | — | — | 0.638 | 0.622 |
| 2 | Heathmill Barron | — | — | 0.632 | — | — | — |
| 3 | Savana Soda | — | 0.602 | 0.638 | — | 0.612 | — |
| 4 | Shackelton Ace | — | — | 0.623 | — | — | — |
| 6 | Walter Jezabelle | 0.671 | — | — | 0.626 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.