The only runner in this race with meaningful open-race form, and that carries significant weight in a field where four rivals are completely unknown quantities. Holds the best speed rating in the field and trainer Kim Taylor has an impressive 40% win rate — one of the more formidable trainers in this area, who rarely runs a horse without a purpose. Last time out was a fifth place at A7 scoring 39, and the run before that a 34, so the recent form is not spectacular. But the combination of being the only experienced runner in the field and having a trainer hitting 40% gives this a clear edge. Trap 2 is below average at this grade winning only 15%, so the draw is a negative — but when everyone else is an unknown, proven form has to come first.