Hollyoak Stormzy has an eye-catching record with three wins from five starts, making him statistically the most prolific winner in the race. The concern is that his two losses were both sixths — he's very much an all-or-nothing proposition who either leads from the front or drops out completely. From trap 3 at a track where no box dominates at D3 grade, his winning frequency is the strongest argument in his favour. In a low-separation race with a modest field, you back the dog who wins most often and hope the good version turns up.