Frainey Holly gets the nod in a low-separation race primarily because of her draw. Trap 6 has been the best-performing box at D2 277m, winning over 21% of races from 334 runs. Her form isn't spectacular — a second and a third from her last five are the highlights — but in a race where the ratings barely separate the runners, structural factors become the tiebreaker. She has enough pace to be competitive from the outside and the first-bend geometry should work in her favour.