Glynnscross Blue gets the nod based on raw ability — her avgP of 33 is 4 points clear of the field, which is a significant margin at D4 level. Her 67% CD win rate (2 wins from 3 runs) demonstrates she can convert, though the small sample size is a concern. Her closer style (CS100) means she finishes powerfully, which is useful even at the sprint distance if she can stay in touch through the early stages. The distance suitability of 59 is the best in the field, suggesting she handles 238m well despite her last run being at 415m. However, this is a tentative pick because: (1) only 3 CD runs is a tiny sample, (2) her last race was at a completely different trip and class (A6 415m), and (3) she draws in T1 (18.4%) rather than the optimal T6 (23.3%). She needs to prove she can reproduce her earlier CD form after running over a different distance.