Marcianos Punch is the pick despite drawing the structurally dead trap 4, which wins just 13.4% in handicaps. In his defence, the handicap stagger partially neutralises the trap disadvantage, and his raw ability is the best in the field by a clear margin — he's been competing at A4 and handicap level with a second two starts back and consistent efforts throughout. He's a closer with genuine finishing speed and an improving trajectory, with his last six performances showing a steady upward curve. His speed on the clock is the second-highest in the field. The dead trap is a real concern but in a handicap where the stagger matters more than the box, his class could tell.