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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Makeyamindupb 1y 6 | B S Green — 21% R406 W84 P243 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 54 | 60 (3) | 60 (2) | 59 (2) | 40 (5) | 39 (5) | 40 (5) | - | - | - | - | 6 | 22 | 13 | 19 | 52 | 42 | 4 | 11/10F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Melbury Tyrd 2y 5 | J J Heath — 21% R348 W72 P208 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 50 | 43 (5) | 62 (1) | 46 (3) | 41 (6) | 43 (5) | 61 (1) | 52 (3) | 36 (5) | 48 (3) | 45 (3) | 33 | 33 | 4 | 29 | 48 | 43 | 6 | 11/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Troy Smokin Joed 3y 7 | K Dodington — 17% R102 W17 P55 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 50 | 62 (1) | 51 (2) | 52 (1) | 48 (2) | 47 (2) | 58 (4) | 49 (5) | 65 (3) | 86 (1) | 61 (4) | 41 | 60 | - | 66 | 56 | 55 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Montalto Runnerb 2y 17 | M J Richards — 16% R164 W26 P87 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 49 | 42 (5) | 53 (3) | 51 (4) | 48 (5) | 67 (1) | 49 (4) | 52 (4) | 50 (4) | 47 (5) | 46 (4) | 26 | 13 | 35 | 13 | 50 | 38 | 5 | 18/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Stormy Blueyd 2y 35 | R J Holloway — 20% R282 W55 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 36 | 51 (4) | 56 (3) | 88 (2) | 50 (5) | 57 (3) | 63 (3) | 78 (2) | 89 (2) | 56 (2) | 40 (5) | 32 | 30 | 22 | 20 | 62 | 47 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Courty Ashd 2y 6 | M J Richards — 16% R164 W26 P87 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 65 | 49 (4) | 67 (1) | 46 (4) | 41 (5) | 52 (3) | 52 (4) | 64 (2) | 66 (2) | 68 (1) | 55 (2) | 26 | 27 | 44 | 27 | 54 | 47 | 2 | 8/1 | - | |
The most frustrating runner on this card. She has the best average performance in this field at 62, the best speed rating at 61 — well clear of everyone else — and a remarkable 88-rated run two races back that is the highest single performance in this field. If she were in any other trap, she would be the clear pick. But trap 5 at A6 Hove wins just 12.0% from 133 runs — the most structurally destructive draw at this grade and distance. That is an enormous penalty, equivalent to giving away nine percentage points compared to trap 3. She runs as a Closer, which makes the wide draw even more difficult to navigate. The data leaves no room for sentiment: she will need everything to go perfectly to overcome the structural disadvantage, and the 12% trap win rate says that happens very rarely. One to note in the market but not the one to back.
Best early pace and bend in the field from a decent trap 6 draw — danger if she can sustain the lead at 500m, which the Fader profile questions.
Consistent recent form but the ceiling at 59-60 is likely not enough at A6 against runners with higher peaks.
Below-average trap, lowest speed in field and inconsistent recent form — hard to make a case at A6.
Best structural trap plus the best course and distance record in the field plus a recent win at A7 — three stacking signals that make him the pick at A6 Hove.
Poor structural trap and below-par recent form — not a strong case for A6 competition.
Trap 3 is the best structural draw at A6 Hove 500m at 22.4% from 237 runs. Trap 5 is catastrophically poor at 12.0% from 133 runs. Speed rank 1 wins 26.5% — the strongest predictor. Composite rank 1 wins 23.1% — a meaningful signal at A6.
T1:20.9% T2:20.2% T3:22.4% T4:16.4% T5:12.0% T6:21.4%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Makeyamindup | 59 | 2 | Fader |
2Melbury Tyr | 51 | 43 | All-Rounder |
3Troy Smokin Joe | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Montalto Runner | 49 | 57 | Closer |
5Stormy Bluey | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Courty Ash | 67 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 450m | 460m | 500m | 695m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makeyamindup | — | — | 0.612 | — |
| 2 | Melbury Tyr | — | — | 0.610 | — |
| 3 | Troy Smokin Joe | 0.605 | 0.638 | 0.609 | — |
| 4 | Montalto Runner | — | — | 0.609 | — |
| 5 | Stormy Bluey | — | — | 0.604 | 0.617 |
| 6 | Courty Ash | — | — | 0.606 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.