Homing Dogs With Home Run Hounds Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Baby Arcb 4y 22 | A S Mcpherson — 16% R289 W46 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 4 | - | 42 (2) | 55 (3) | 50 (4) | 25 (6) | 23 (6) | 16 (6) | 56 (2) | 56 (3) | 19 (4) | 15 (5) | 23 | 22 | 18 | 10 | 38 | 31 | 6 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Hollys Goldb 2y 16 | L Cook — 17% R130 W22 P73 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 20 | 0 | 40 (6) | 55 (2) | 55 (4) | 37 (5) | 39 (6) | 71 (1) | 18 (6) | 19 (6) | 19 (5) | - | 55 | 50 | 44 | 49 | 45 | 47 | 5 | 5/6F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Rowington Ravenb 2y 6 | P J Wilson — 21% R106 W22 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 52 | 18 (5) | 66 (2) | 79 (1) | 73 (1) | 56 (1) | 59 (2) | 48 (3) | 43 (4) | 49 (5) | - | 19 | 44 | 18 | 17 | 55 | 45 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Jaymir Tarab 4y 25 | J Daly — 18% R223 W40 P117 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 52 | 68 (2) | 43 (1) | 57 (5) | 58 (3) | 59 (4) | 60 (2) | 42 (2) | 70 (2) | - | - | 69 | 35 | 65 | 34 | 56 | 53 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Lemon Shirleyb 2y 8 | J Gray — 17% R224 W37 P131 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 28 | 61 (3) | 70 (2) | 76 (1) | 60 (3) | 51 (3) | 77 (4) | 57 (1) | 75 (3) | 55 (1) | - | 54 | 48 | 35 | 39 | 61 | 56 | 3 | 16/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Headford Tarab 2y 211 | E Saville — 21% R100 W21 P54 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 76 | 89 | 82 (1) | 75 (1) | 64 (5) | 73 (2) | 63 (4) | 74 (2) | 62 (4) | 58 (5) | 57 (4) | 79 (2) | 32 | 38 | 31 | 28 | 67 | 55 | 1 | 7/1 | - | |
Headford Tara is the class act here, dropping from A2 company where she's been competitive with an average performance of 67 — well clear of this handicap field. She draws the best box in the race at these conditions — trap 6 wins at 22.44% from 401 runs in Nottingham handicaps. Her speed figures are exceptional — the best in the field by a wide margin — and her early pace is electric with a bend rating of 89 that should see her blast to the front through the first turn. The fading concern is real over 500 metres, but the class gap between her and this field is so large that even fading, she should have enough in reserve. She's been mixing it at A2 level and drops into handicap company looking well treated.
Excellent trap and class suitability with improving form — the principal danger to the pick.
Structural draw advantage can't compensate for the lowest speed and ability figures in the field.
Best suitability profile in the race and strong recent form but the extreme closing style is a risk in handicaps.
The dead draw in handicap races at this venue is a major obstacle — needs a lot to fall right.
Strong draw and decent finishing speed but inconsistent recent form keeps her behind the pick and danger.
HANDICAP — trap bias de-weighted, speed/pace profile elevated. T6 best at 22.44%. Composite rank 1 wins 22.74% — some predictive value. Speed rating and pace profile more important than raw performance given stagger.
T1:20.24% T2:18.24% T3:14.33% T4:19.6% T5:20% T6:22.44%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Baby Arc | — | — | No data |
2Hollys Gold | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Rowington Raven | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Jaymir Tara | 54 | 22 | All-Rounder |
5Lemon Shirley | 39 | 72 | Closer |
6Headford Tara | 88 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 305m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Arc | 0.629 | 0.652 |
| 2 | Hollys Gold | 0.619 | 0.637 |
| 3 | Rowington Raven | 0.619 | 0.622 |
| 4 | Jaymir Tara | — | 0.622 |
| 5 | Lemon Shirley | — | 0.620 |
| 6 | Headford Tara | — | 0.613 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.