| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Chelms Charmerd 3y 15 | C R Morris — 27% R302 W82 P201 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 43 | 67 (4) | 67 (5) | 90 (1) | 68 (3) | 61 (4) | 71 (4) | 79 (4) | 55 (5) | 61 (3) | 63 (5) | 39 | 41 | 56 | 31 | 70 | 42 | 5 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Weird Peopleb 2y 16 | E G Samuels — 15% R598 W90 P319 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 40 | 80 (2) | 76 (2) | 94 (1) | 45 (5) | 100 (1) | 88 (2) | 67 (4) | 61 (5) | 81 (3) | 74 (4) | 33 | 31 | 34 | 39 | 78 | 46 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ardera Villed 2y 17 | M P Brown — 18% R397 W73 P211 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 63 | 53 (5) | 89 (1) | 68 (3) | 58 (3) | 47 (3) | 72 (5) | 76 (2) | 65 (1) | 72 (2) | - | 37 | 18 | - | 18 | 66 | 37 | 3 | 18/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Thunder Danced 2y 110 | C R Morris — 27% R302 W82 P201 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 65 | 94 (1) | 82 (2) | 93 (1) | 82 (2) | 88 (1) | 76 (3) | 91 (1) | 95 (1) | 95 (1) | 83 (2) | 63 | 80 | 71 | 77 | 87 | 63 | 1 | 5/6F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Kilara Rodrigod 2yN/R 15 | I J Barnard — 21% R257 W54 P150 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 53 | 70 (3) | 93 (1) | 69 (5) | 91 (1) | 67 (4) | 86 (1) | 52 (5) | 65 (4) | 61 (4) | 81 (1) | - | 27 | 28 | 42 | 77 | 41 | - | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Queen Gracieb 2y 36 | J G Mullins — 14% R120 W17 P71 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 43 | 84 (2) | 74 (3) | 90 (1) | 67 (5) | 82 (1) | 64 (2) | 51 (5) | 60 (5) | 67 (5) | - | 31 | 27 | - | 33 | 73 | 41 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelms Charmer | 27.96 | 28.18 | 28.15 | 48 | +0.19 | Below leaders | |
| 2 | Weird People | 27.84 | 28.06 | 27.91 | 56 | +0.07 | Fastest LTO | |
| 3 | Ardera Ville | 27.99 | 28.21 | 28.40 | 43 | +0.41 | Slowest in field | |
| 4 | Thunder Dance | 27.72 | 27.96 | 27.92 | 59 | +0.20 | Model pick | |
| 5 | Kilara Rodrigo | 27.96 | 28.36 | 27.96 | 47 | 0.00 | Won LTO | |
| 6 | Queen Gracie | 27.92 | 28.25 | 28.01 | 49 | +0.09 | Fader profile |
Yarmouth's 462 metres is one of the fairest tests in British racing - a well-cambered, galloping circuit that confers almost no trap or running-style advantage, with only a five-to-six point spread between the best box (trap three, 22.3%) and the worst (trap five, 16.7%). It also produces the fewest all-the-way winners of any track in the country at just one in five, because the long home straight regularly catches out early leaders before the line. Both the fastest-rated dog and the best-rated dog on recent form win close to 27% of races here, so the raw form and figures can be trusted more than at most tracks. Thunder Dance sets the pace on both speed and recent form and has an outstanding record at this course and distance, while Weird People and Kilara Rodrigo are the confirmed finishers best placed to reel him in if he's not quite at his brilliant best. The early-pace merchants Ardera Ville and Queen Gracie look vulnerable to being run down in the closing stages given how this track typically plays out.
The fastest dog in this field on the clock and, on a rating of 87 from his last six starts, comfortably the best on recent form too - nine points clear of his nearest rival. What really stands out is his record over this course and distance: six wins and nine places from his last ten runs at Yarmouth over 462 metres, an outstanding strike rate that shows he simply knows how to win around this circuit. Finishes his races strongly from off the pace, which is exactly the type that thrives on Yarmouth's long run-in. Trainer C R Morris sits above a quarter-win strike rate in this grade and distance too. The one they all have to beat.
Been knocking on the door with places in three of his last four starts, including when strongly involved at this trip last time out. A confirmed finisher who typically travels through his races from off the pace, which plays into his hands on Yarmouth's long run to the line where the leaders often get mown down. The one most likely to trouble the selection if the pace doesn't fall his way.
Steady rather than spectacular for this yard, with four of his last six starts producing places without ever getting his head in front recently. Ticks along on early pace but doesn't finish races off strongly, and this in-form field looks to have more upside than he does. An each-way squeak at best.
Drops back down in grade after mixed form and tends to burn his effort up in the first half of races rather than sustain it through the line - exactly the running style this long home straight tends to catch out. Nothing in his recent form suggests he is sharp enough to trouble this field. The slowest of the six on recent times too.
Won last time out and finishes his races strongly from off the pace, which suits this track well. Form is up and down - a couple of below-par runs sit alongside two recent wins - but the engine is clearly there on his day. Capable of running into the frame if things fall his way, though drawn in the weakest box here.
Won two starts back but the pattern is fast-early-then-fade, a running style that Yarmouth's long straight generally punishes. Placed last time out but has needed things to fall right rather than winning these on merit of late. Others in this field have stronger recent claims and better finishing power.
Key insight: Speed Rank 1 wins 26.6% and top form-rated dog wins 26.4% here from 1,796 runs - both comfortably above the national baseline, so raw figures are unusually trustworthy at this track and grade.
T1:18.2% T2:20.6% T3:22.3% T4:18.5% T5:16.7% T6:19.7%
1,796 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Chelms Charmer | 49 | 0 | All-Rounder |
2Weird People | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Ardera Ville | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Thunder Dance | 51 | 100 | Closer |
5Kilara Rodrigo | 35 | 100 | Closer |
6Queen Gracie | 100 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 462m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (462m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 450m | 462m | 491m | 500m | 575m | 659m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelms Charmer | 0.628 | 0.610 | — | 0.592 | 0.624 | — |
| 2 | Weird People | — | 0.607 | — | — | — | 0.624 |
| 3 | Ardera Ville | — | 0.611 | — | 0.598 | — | — |
| 4 | Thunder Dance | — | 0.605 | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | Queen Gracie | — | 0.611 | 0.605 | — | 0.624 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.