THE WILL ALLEN 40TH BIRTHDAY BASH
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Roanna Mambad 3y 14 | M P Brown — 21% R425 W89 P244 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 67 (6) | 100 (1) | 71 (1) | 88 (3) | 62 (2) | 45 (2) | 98 (6) | 98 (1) | 92 (1) | - | 81 | 28 | 28 | 42 | 82 | 71 | 1 | 2/9F | |
| 2 | ▶ King Richied 3y 18 | J Bateson — 10% R42 W4 P25 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 71 (3) | 69 (2) | 68 (4) | 50 (5) | 82 (1) | 63 (3) | 85 (2) | 74 (3) | 47 (4) | - | 37 | 21 | - | 35 | 57 | 48 | 3 | 18/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Droopys Willd 3y 8 | M L Locke — 23% R292 W66 P171 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 84 (3) | 73 (3) | 84 (4) | 90 (3) | 90 (2) | 93 (2) | 92 (2) | 60 (4) | 54 (6) | 71 (2) | 51 | 33 | - | 57 | 72 | 63 | 2 | 9/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Brickhill Tamikad 2y 24 | S G Tighe — 38% R64 W24 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | - | 78 (3) | 100 (1) | 66 (5) | 100 (1) | 100 (1) | 44 (1) | - | - | - | - | 16 | 10 | - | - | 74 | 53 | 4 | 6/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Crokers Fluffyd 3y 15 | S J Cull — 11% R101 W11 P55 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 1 | - | 30 (3) | 17 (6) | 35 (2) | 34 (2) | 42 (2) | 45 (1) | 47 (4) | 49 (3) | 61 (2) | - | 1 | - | - | - | 47 | 31 | 6 | 50/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Skinnylittlemissb 3y 6 | S W Deakin — 17% R519 W87 P242 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 33 (2) | 30 (4) | 30 (4) | 35 (3) | 33 (3) | 31 (5) | 41 (1) | 42 (4) | - | - | 40 | 36 | - | 46 | 38 | 39 | 5 | 33/1 | |
Roanna Mamba emerges as standout contender with composite score of 71, average performance of 82, and closer profile (CSR:100, paceCon:0). AvgP of 82 sits 20 points above field average indicating genuine class superiority. Recent form demonstrates competitive capability: second at Dunstall OR (61), second at Sheffield IV (45), and significant wins in lower grades (P1 at Suffolk OR, 99; P1 at Suffolk OR, 91). Suitability is balanced: distance suit 42, trap suit 28. Trainer M P Brown operates at 20% win rate. Composite score of 71 is joint-highest and 20-point avgP advantage represents substantial quality separation. Closer profile at 270m is primary risk but class gap is sufficiently large to compensate. This represents pick with reasonable confidence given performance metrics despite running profile mismatch.
King Richie operates with composite score of 48 and fading profile (EP:100, CSR:0) well-suited to 270m but undermined by weak overall ratings. Speed rating of 53 is below average and lastP of 84 suggests recent form recovery. Form sequence shows volatility: second at D1 (84 — current best), then fourth and third at OR level (46, 74), suggesting dog may be most comfortable in D1 company. Suitability is poor: distance suit 35, trap suit 21, class suit 0. Class suitability of 0 indicates vulnerability to OR2 competition. Trainer J Bateson operates at 34% win rate. Composite score of 48 ranks fourth in field and while fading profile suits 270m, lack of distance suitability and form ceiling at D1 level suggest this dog is outclassed.
Droopys Will presents as primary danger with composite score of 63, average performance of 72, and all-rounder profile (CSR:50, paceCon:83) providing flexibility across distance and pace demands. Speed rating of 50 is average. Form sequence shows strong recent momentum: second at Romford OR1 (88 — very close to top class), then second at Romford OR1 (71), second at Romford OR (71), and fourth at Romford OR (60). Recent wins at Central Park OR3 (100) show progression capability. Suitability is solid: distance suit 57, trap suit 33. With composite score 8 points below pick, Droopys Will lacks performance advantage to overcome Roanna Mamba's class gap though dog demonstrates OR-level competency that cannot be dismissed as threat.
Brickhill Tamika operates with composite score of 53, average performance of 74, and closer profile (CSR:100, paceCon:75). Speed rating of 58 is above average but lastP of 100 at Nottingham 305m OR indicates recent success at different venue. Form sequence is trial-heavy: three wins at trials (20, 20, 11) with sixth at Starbuck A3 (20 — anomalous result). Dog shows isolated capability (P1 at Nottingham OR, 100) but insufficient breadth of competitive form. Suitability is severely compromised: distance suit 0, trap suit 10, class suit 0. Distance suitability of 0 is critical deficiency at 270m despite moderate speed rating. Trainer S G Tighe operates at 50% win rate. While trainer percentage is exceptional, form pattern (trial-heavy, single competitive win), closer profile at 270m, and zero distance suitability position dog as long shot.
Crokers Fluffy operates at lowest composite score in field (31) with fading profile (EP:100, CSR:0) suited to 270m but undermined by catastrophically poor ratings. Average performance of 47, speed rating of 1, and lastP of 42 indicate dog well below competitive standard of this race. Form sequence shows dog is Doncaster specialist: five runs at Doncaster (42, 45, 47, 49, 61) with no wins suggesting dog has adapted to lower-grade competition but not progressed. Suitability is dire: distance suit 0, trap suit 0, trap suitability 1, class suit 0. Multiple zero-suitability scores across conditions indicate fundamental mismatch. Trainer S J Cull operates at 4% win rate. Composite score of 31 is 40 points below pick and form pattern establishes this dog as non-factor in OR2 race.
Skinnylittlemiss operates with composite score of 39, average performance of 38, and no defined running profile (speed 52). Form sequence shows dog stuck in lower grades: five runs at D1-D2 level (42, 39, 33, 41, 27) with no wins and no evidence of progression to OR company. Suitability is limited: distance suit 46, trap suit 36, class suit 0. Class suitability of 0 indicates clear vulnerability at OR2 level. Trainer S W Deakin operates at 12% win rate. Composite score of 39 ranks second-lowest in field and form pattern demonstrates dog has established form ceiling at D1-D2 level with no recent progression. Dog faces significant class jump and is unlikely to contend against leading composites.
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.