Elderberry Tina takes the prediction on the basis of her speed and pace figures, but the form tells a concerning story — she's finished last in her two most recent A10 starts and hasn't won since dropping from A9 where she was consistently outclassed. The fader profile means she should be prominent early, and her speed and bend ratings are among the best in this weak field. She's essentially trading on raw physical ability in the hope that a weak field allows her to hold on despite fading. Trainer Cowdrill's 18% win rate is moderate. This is a speculative pick in a race where nothing stands out.