The strongest runner in the field on raw ability with an average of 79 and a peak performance of 100 that no one else comes close to matching. His closing style is textbook for marathon racing — he sits off the early pace, conserves energy, and picks up tiring leaders in the final 100 metres. The composite of 57 leads the race and his early pace of 50 confirms the patient running style. Trap one gives him the rail on the first bend, allowing him to save ground throughout. Draper trains him and the suitability score of 44 isn't spectacular, but over 661m the physical ability matters more than track-specific suitability. His last run of 100 was his peak — timing couldn't be better. A medium confidence pick because the marathon distance always carries unpredictability, but he's the class act in this line-up.