The pick on the strength of the best time in the field at 17.11, which is over two tenths faster than anything else in this race, and the highest speed rating at 55 which is four points clear of the joint second at 51. In a 275m sprint those margins are significant because there is so little time to recover from a slow start. AvgP of 28 jointly leads the field. Form is remarkably consistent between 24 and 33 which means his floor is competitive at this grade. Overton kennel at 18%. T4 is a reasonable mid-draw. The concern is that his peak of P33 is modest and there is no standout recent run to suggest he is improving. But in a sprint with this level of separation, the fastest dog with the highest speed rating gets the nod. The Tentative confidence reflects the genuine difficulty of separating this field rather than any specific weakness in the pick.