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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Flickering Belleb 2y 11 | P V Swadden — 21% R101 W21 P53 Trainer form — last 3 months | 61 | 55 | 49 (4) | 45 (4) | 44 (5) | 43 (4) | 49 (5) | 62 (2) | 53 (4) | 42 (5) | 71 (1) | 57 (3) | 43 | 22 | 20 | 13 | 49 | 49 | 1 | 8/11F | ||
| 2 | ▶ Great Timeb 3y 7 | D Jeans — 12% R234 W29 P103 Trainer form — last 3 months | 50 | 57 | 47 (3) | 62 (1) | 47 (2) | 49 (3) | 46 (4) | 39 (4) | 35 (6) | 57 (1) | 47 (3) | 56 (1) | 33 | 30 | 19 | 32 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 7/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Happy Ever Afterb 5y 14 | P J Dolby — 15% R48 W7 P20 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 43 | 42 (4) | 59 (1) | 42 (3) | 39 (5) | 53 (2) | 36 (6) | 35 (6) | 48 (2) | 42 (5) | 67 (1) | 26 | 28 | 17 | 31 | 46 | 43 | 4 | 8/1 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Mums Imaged 2y 17 | N J Deas — 17% R456 W76 P249 Trainer form — last 3 months | 47 | 44 | 36 (6) | 37 (6) | 54 (3) | 67 (1) | 45 (5) | 18 (1) | 50 (3) | 45 (3) | 38 (4) | 52 (3) | 25 | 23 | 30 | 17 | 44 | 36 | 5 | 7/2 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Catunda Stellab 5y 44 | A M Kibble — 21% R169 W36 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | 46 | 66 | 60 (1) | 38 (5) | 79 (1) | 54 (5) | 61 (2) | 50 (4) | 74 (1) | 51 (4) | 51 (2) | 66 (3) | 28 | 20 | 35 | 27 | 58 | 38 | 3 | 7/1 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Unknown Bikerd 4y 36 | D D Porter — 17% R509 W89 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | 44 | 33 | 59 (1) | 61 (5) | 51 (3) | 91 (1) | 44 (2) | 50 (3) | 71 (2) | 37 (5) | 71 (2) | 59 (3) | 32 | 25 | 17 | 30 | 60 | 41 | 6 | 9/1 | ||
Flickering Belle (T1) is the selection on a convergence that the Towcester 500m data identifies as its most reliable signal: Speed Rank 1 and Composite Rank 1 in the same dog, drawing from T1. The Speed plus Comp combo fires at 35.8% win rate at this venue and distance, materially above the Towcester 500m mega-stack baseline of 27.5%. The inside draw means Flickering Belle dictates the rail position from the first bend and conserves ground across all six turns. Performance average of 49 is the third-highest in the race, but the ML rankings more accurately capture venue and grade fitness than raw performance averages alone. Against T5 and T6, both carrying higher performance averages but structural draw disadvantages at this staying trip, Flickering Belle is the better-placed runner to convert model strength into race position.
Highest performance figure among the dangers but T5 draw disadvantage over six bends limits the win case.
Equal performance average to the pick but lower ML rankings — best of the rest from T2.
Decent draw but form metrics below the leaders — mid-field prospect at A6 500m.
Weakest form figures in the field from a below-average draw — hard to recommend.
Best raw form in the race but T6 draw penalty at multi-bend 500m and lower ML rankings present a structural barrier.
Towcester 500m Speed plus Comp combo fires at 35.8% win rate when both R1 signals align. A6 at Towcester: composite R1 wins 35% in middle grades (43 runs). T1 is the structurally optimal draw across six bends.
T1: 19.91% T2: 18.51% T3: 19.39% T4: 18.4% T5: 17.35% T6: 18.85%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Flickering Belle | 51 | 53 | All-Rounder |
2Great Time | 57 | 7 | Fader |
3Happy Ever After | 47 | 47 | All-Rounder |
4Mums Image | 53 | 31 | All-Rounder |
5Catunda Stella | 49 | 100 | Closer |
6Unknown Biker | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.