Alnwick Toonarmy gets the nod here largely on the strength of his suitability credentials, which are the best in the field across every measure. He has proven form at this course, distance, and trap, and his All-Rounder pace profile with excellent consistency means he should deliver a reliable effort. His recent graded form is admittedly poor — sixth in a handicap last time with a 38 — but his trial form before that was strong. He has the best bend rating among the non-Faders, which matters at Newcastle, and is drawn in a solid position. In a race where the composite model has no reliable separation between the ranked dogs, his suitability edge gives him the marginal advantage.