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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Salacres Merkelb 3y 4 | P H Harnden — 17% R397 W67 P223 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 43 | 43 (5) | 62 (2) | 31 (3) | 53 (4) | 56 (3) | 72 (1) | 60 (2) | 57 (4) | 70 (1) | 57 (3) | 41 | 42 | 34 | 38 | 57 | 50 | 3 | 9/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Slippy Debrab 2y 26 | J M Liles — 19% R422 W81 P225 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 52 | 51 (5) | 40 (4) | 50 (5) | 36 (5) | 45 (2) | 74 (1) | 59 (3) | 64 (5) | 32 (1) | - | 28 | 33 | 32 | 25 | 50 | 41 | 2 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Graigues Downeyb 3y 15 | A D Scott — 11% R38 W4 P18 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 52 | 61 (3) | 30 (3) | 37 (2) | 38 (5) | 41 (6) | 54 (2) | 67 (2) | 31 (5) | 48 (3) | 44 (5) | 27 | 22 | 11 | 12 | 51 | 40 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Longcroft Antd 1y 12 | C J Joyce — 8% R12 W1 P5 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | - | 31 (4) | 31 (4) | 36 (2) | 35 (2) | 23 (6) | 30 (4) | 42 (1) | 33 (2) | - | - | 31 | 30 | - | - | - | 18 | 6 | 10/3 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Romeo Bravod 1y 8 | L G Tuffin — 25% R283 W72 P154 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 56 | 64 (2) | 59 (2) | 53 (5) | 73 (1) | 47 (5) | 68 (1) | 32 (6) | 61 (6) | - | - | 31 | 36 | 31 | 38 | 58 | 51 | 1 | 6/4F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Chelms Jacobd 4y 14 | P H Harnden — 17% R397 W67 P223 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 34 | 51 (3) | 72 (1) | 42 (6) | 54 (2) | 63 (2) | 76 (1) | 64 (3) | 51 (5) | 53 (3) | 72 (1) | 33 | 30 | 38 | 37 | 59 | 50 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
Romeo Bravo is the model's selection and makes a strong case on form metrics even if the structural draw is against him. The composite of 51 is joint-highest in the race, average performance of 58 is the highest, and the first-bend rating of 56 is competitive. As an all-rounder type, he should handle the sustained 500-metre test at Towcester well. Distance suitability of 38 confirms genuine familiarity with this trip. The Tuffin yard's 30% win rate is the best trainer stat on the card and provides confidence in his preparation. The form trajectory of P64, P59, P53, P73, P47 shows a dog capable of reaching the high-60s/low-70s ceiling — significantly above D4 or D5 company. The reservation is trap 5 which wins only 13.7% at A5 500m Towcester — a genuine structural negative that the model's composite has chosen to override.
DANGER: Dominant structural draw with strong profile across composite, average, and suitability metrics. The clearest overall case combining draw and form. Main rival to the selection.
Solid mid-table profile. Fair draw. Capable of placing but needs rivals to find trouble to win.
Recent form uptick (P61) is interesting. Distance suitability modest. Each-way appeal if the uplift is genuine.
Almost no form basis and weakest draw. Cannot be recommended without analytical foundation.
Very close to the selection on composite and average. Weaker first-bend and outer draw are the tiebreakers against him. Place candidate in a tight race.
Trap 1 is dominant at A5 500m Towcester (27.8% from 248 runs — very strong signal). Trap 5 is among the weakest draws (13.7%). Composite rank 1 wins 26.6%.
T1:27.8% T2:18.0% T3:18.3% T4:15.1% T5:13.7% T6:14.3%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Salacres Merkel | 42 | 84 | Closer |
2Slippy Debra | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Graigues Downey | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Longcroft Ant | — | — | No data |
5Romeo Bravo | 53 | 29 | All-Rounder |
6Chelms Jacob | 33 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 460m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salacres Merkel | 0.610 | — | 0.601 |
| 2 | Slippy Debra | 0.606 | 0.600 | 0.598 |
| 3 | Graigues Downey | 0.603 | — | 0.602 |
| 4 | Longcroft Ant | 0.606 | — | — |
| 5 | Romeo Bravo | — | — | 0.602 |
| 6 | Chelms Jacob | — | — | 0.598 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.