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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Punk Rock Willowb 3y 17 | S Maplesden — 17% R279 W48 P159 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 64 | 40 (5) | 42 (2) | 43 (2) | 34 (1) | 25 (2) | 25 (4) | 29 (5) | 50 (5) | 47 (1) | - | 56 | 53 | 37 | 42 | 29 | 36 | 1 | 7/4JF | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Doratarb 1y 15 | S A Cahill — 20% R387 W77 P227 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 50 | 30 (5) | 32 (3) | 38 (2) | 32 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 23 | 20 | 21 | 15 | 33 | 28 | 4 | 7/4JF | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Crude Duded 2y 18 | G S Byford — 25% R246 W61 P154 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 40 | 40 (2) | 29 (4) | 45 (1) | 34 (3) | 29 (4) | 21 (6) | 26 (4) | 22 (6) | 30 (4) | 20 (6) | 50 | 51 | - | 31 | 24 | 31 | 3 | 16/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Chisem Ameliab 1y 25 | R J Holloway — 20% R286 W58 P151 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 43 | 32 (3) | 37 (3) | 36 (3) | 36 (3) | 31 (3) | 25 (5) | - | - | - | - | 4 | 20 | - | 9 | 33 | 25 | 5 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Rapido Avab 3y 6 | J J Heath — 21% R372 W79 P230 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 63 | 52 (6) | 44 (1) | 42 (3) | 49 (3) | 32 (1) | 30 (5) | 34 (4) | 34 (2) | 25 (2) | - | 39 | 35 | 37 | 24 | 33 | 33 | 2 | 10/3 | - | |
Punk Rock Willow has been a model of consistency, finishing in the first two in four of her last five starts including a win last time out. She is drawn in a trap that wins more than a third of all A11 races at Hove over 500 metres — a structural advantage that is hard to overstate. Her trap suitability of 56 confirms she has individually capitalised on this draw before, and her track suitability of 53 is the best in the field. She is a front-runner with strong early pace and bend ability, which means she should secure the rail position through the first bend and never look back. Stuart Maplesden's 28% strike rate seals the deal. The strongest pick on the card.
Similar pace profile to the pick but drawn wider — the main danger.
Weak suitability despite a fair draw — others preferred.
Decent closer in a strong draw but the dominant trap 1 is hard to beat.
Dead trap, awful trap suitability, and limited distance form — hard to fancy.
Trap 1 dominates A11 at Hove 500m at 33.9% — double the expected rate. Combined with the pick having the best suitability in the field for this trap, this is a powerful structural and individual alignment. Composite rank 2 actually outperforms rank 1 (28.2% vs 20.9%) which is unusual.
T1:33.9% T2:20.6% T3:24.3% T4:14.9% T5:18.5% T6:16.1%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Punk Rock Willow | 68 | 0 | Fader |
2Doratar | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Crude Dude | 42 | 88 | Closer |
4Chisem Amelia | 45 | 86 | Closer |
6Rapido Ava | 67 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.