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The THORNTREE BADGER Retirement Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Thorntree Badgerb 3y 15 | R A Draper — 29% R263 W76 P171 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 27 (4) | 26 (4) | 34 (1) | 29 (3) | 26 (4) | 31 (1) | 19 (4) | 31 (1) | 22 (4) | 28 (2) | 45 | 40 | 19 | 40 | 27 | 32 | 4 | 10/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ La Florb 4y 24 | D L Fretwell — 16% R162 W26 P102 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 32 (5) | 31 (2) | 30 (3) | 35 (3) | 26 (1) | 31 (5) | 27 (3) | 28 (3) | 28 (4) | - | 24 | 27 | 32 | 36 | 28 | 28 | 5 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Jolly Fleursb 3y 15 | J D Davy — 23% R56 W13 P29 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 23 (4) | 21 (5) | 27 (4) | 26 (4) | 26 (3) | 28 (2) | 35 (1) | 35 (1) | 26 (5) | 36 (1) | 51 | 54 | 51 | 58 | 29 | 38 | 2 | 13/8F | |
| 5 | ▶ Speedy Basd 4y 15 | J D Davy — 23% R56 W13 P29 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 37 (4) | 22 (1) | 22 (5) | 36 (5) | 31 (5) | 28 (1) | 33 (1) | 29 (3) | - | - | 46 | 44 | 42 | 44 | 30 | 35 | 3 | 7/4 | |
| 6 | ▶ Zari Taylord 2y 24 | P Webster — 16% R96 W15 P44 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 54 (6) | 22 (6) | 24 (2) | 28 (5) | 47 (5) | 64 (6) | 38 (5) | 32 (2) | - | - | 38 | 43 | - | 51 | 37 | 39 | 1 | 9/2 | |
Zari Taylor is the model selection on composite score, and she has early pace that should get her to the first bend quickly. However, she faces a significant structural headwind from trap six, which has been the worst-performing box at this grade at Sheffield from a substantial 195-run sample. Her recent D3 and D2 runs have produced fifth-place finishes and she has no proven class at D3 level based on her suitability data. The model rates her first but the analytical case is challenging — punters should be aware that Jolly Fleurs makes a stronger overall structural case.
Two D3 wins recently with excellent suitability — the AI analytical pick in this race.
D3 winner earlier in the month but inconsistent — capable of a place.
Consistent D3 runner but yet to win at this grade — place prospects better than win.
Won last week and in good form — a genuine contender at this grade.
Trap three dominant at 29.52% from 166 runs — but is a non-runner tonight. Trap six is the dead draw at 11.28% from 195 runs. The predicted winner Zari Taylor is in trap six — significant structural headwind. Jolly Fleurs in trap four (20.81%) has the better structural and individual suitability alignment.
T1:19.25% T2:16.33% T3:29.52% T4:20.81% T5:20.45% T6:11.28%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 280m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.