Introduction
Five runners go to traps for this 11:58 A1 over 500 metres at Nottingham, and on the face of it, the models are unusually aligned. Both our composite rating system and our form model point emphatically to the same dog at the head of affairs — Honour Bach, rated 57 on the composite and a commanding 83 on form. That kind of double consensus doesn't happen every race, and when it does, I pay attention.
Nottingham is a track that rewards the early-paced runner. The 500m trip here is sharp and unforgiving — dogs that miss the break or get caught in first-bend traffic often find it impossible to recover. It's a true test of consistency rather than explosive talent alone. At A1 level, this is the top tier of graded competition, so every runner here has earned their place. One intriguing subplot is Sambar Dream stepping up from A2 — that class rise will tell us plenty about the greyhound's ceiling.
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What To Expect
Trap 2 carries the strongest bias numbers at this track over the last 90 days, winning at 19.3% — the best of any box on the card. That's meaningful at Nottingham, where early position off the boxes is critical to holding a clean line into bend one. Trap 4 is also strong at 18.7%, making the middle of the field the prime real estate tonight. Historically, when our composite model's top-rated dog also leads the form ratings as emphatically as Honour Bach does here, those dogs convert at a rate that justifies short prices. A trap draw of two and a track bias that favours that same draw? That's a double advantage I won't ignore.
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Form
Honour Bach is the form pick and it's not particularly difficult to see why — three wins in the middle of her recent ten-run sequence at this exact track and trip, and she's been remarkably consistent at A1 level. Her last run on July 2nd saw her finish second over this course with a clear run noted, so interference wasn't a factor in her being beaten. The "ClrRun, Rls" notation tells me she was doing her best work late. A best time of 29.86 seconds here shows she's capable of real quality on her day.
Sambar Dream arrives off back-to-back A2 wins at Nottingham, and that's a genuine string to her bow — she won on July 3rd in 29.99 seconds with the comment "Ld2, Mid-Rls" indicating she tracked early before asserting. The class rise to A1 is the obvious question mark. She's been placed rather than dominant at this level in prior visits, and a first bend rating of just 46 out of 100 suggests she won't be leading them into the bend, which makes life complicated at this track.
Skyfall Khan is a fascinating profile — her last run was a four-length fourth in A1 on July 2nd, badly hampered at bends one and two ("Crd1&2"). Before that, she was winning in impressive style at Sheffield and at Nottingham in an OR grade. I'd be inclined to largely forgive that most recent run given the trouble she encountered. The concern is that she's rated as a fader — brilliant early, but emptying late.
Barntick Tiger from trap 5 has no recent form on record whatsoever, which makes meaningful assessment impossible. With zero track suitability rating and no performance score, this runner is one to leave firmly alone from a betting perspective. These debutants or returning runners can occasionally spring surprises, but the data offers nothing to work with here.
Rathcoole Reds, trained by E O Driver alongside Skyfall Khan, showed genuine A1 quality when winning on June 10th in a smart 29.61 seconds — the "LdNrLn, Mid-W" notation suggesting she led close to the line running wide. However, she's had two consecutive disappointing runs since, both involving first-bend trouble ("Crd1&2" and "Crd1&4"), which has disrupted her rhythm badly. Coming from the wide trap 6 with a trap suitability rating of just 36, she needs everything to go right.
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Run Style
This is where the race becomes genuinely intriguing. Skyfall Khan is rated with an early pace score of 100 out of 100 — she is, in short, a pure front-runner who needs to be bowling along in front. Her recent run comments of "EP, ALd" and "QAw, LedTo2" confirm this profile in black and white. She will absolutely try to dominate from trap 4.
Honour Bach, by contrast, is classified as a closer with a closing rating of 56. She's not the fastest away — her early pace rating is 49 — but she finds her stride through the race and was doing her best work late in her last run. That makes the early exchanges between these two particularly critical.
Sambar Dream is the most extreme closer in this field with a closing rating of 100 and an early pace score of just zero. She will be last early and will need things to open up ahead of her. In a small five-runner field, that's not impossible, but it requires cooperative traffic.
Rathcoole Reds is described as an all-rounder, which suggests flexibility, but her wide draw from six means she's likely to be forced to make ground from the outside. A scrimmage at the first bend involving the early pace of Skyfall Khan could benefit the closers, but it could equally cause chaos — and Rathcoole Reds has already been caught twice in recent weeks.
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Speed
*seconds per 10 metres — lower is faster
Skyfall Khan holds the best time figure in this field at 29.77 seconds, and that is legitimate pace — set at this track and distance in A2 company. The problem is the chasm between her best time and her most recent 30.85 seconds. That's a dog who had a miserable last run, partly through interference, partly perhaps through her fading profile catching up with her at A1 level against stiffer opposition.
Rathcoole Reds posted the most eye-catching time in the field with a 29.61 seconds on June 10th — that's comfortably the fastest on the clock. But her Sec/10m figure of 6.12 last time tells a different story about what she's been doing lately, and her best time needs serious discounting given the subsequent poor runs.
Honour Bach's best of 29.86 seconds is solid and repeatable — that's the word I'd use about this dog. Her times cluster in a reliable band, and while she may not hold the absolute ceiling of raw pace, she delivers. Sambar Dream's best time of 29.99 seconds is actually competitive at this level, but it was achieved in A2 company, which tempers the enthusiasm slightly.
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How The Race Might Unfold
My reading of this race suggests a relatively clean early passage from the boxes is likely, but with one significant flashpoint. Skyfall Khan will exit trap 4 with maximum intent and try to lead from the front — that's what she does and that's what her pace profile demands. She'll be first to the bend or very close to it.
The question is whether she takes a clean line or causes trouble. On July 2nd she was reported as "Crd1&2" — caught in the middle of a collision herself — and prior to that she'd been largely clean. I'd expect her to reach the first bend in front or joint-leading.
Honour Bach, coming from the inside trap 2, will be tracking the early pace rather than fighting for it. If Skyfall Khan burns away cleanly, the closer will be doing her best work from the second half of the race. Sambar Dream, with that extreme closer profile, will be making ground from the back of the field. She needs the front-runners to set a genuinely strong pace and begin to tire in the closing stages.
Rathcoole Reds from six will be trying to cut across and find a rail — if she gets a clean first bend, her winning time of 29.61 seconds shows she belongs. If she gets caught in trouble again, as she has in her last two runs, the wide draw becomes a significant liability. My expectation is a strong early pace set by Skyfall Khan, with Honour Bach ideally placed to strike approaching the final turn.
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Final Conclusions
There is very little ambiguity in how both models view this race, and I find myself fully aligned with that consensus. Honour Bach is the right selection — she's proven, consistent at this level, drawn in the most advantageous trap, running at her best track and best distance, and carries the highest form rating in the field by a margin. Mcpherson's runner is simply the class act of this race on the evidence available.
The main danger, in my view, is Sambar Dream, who has been in excellent form at A2 and clearly merited a crack at A1. Her closing speed is the highest in the field, and if the early pace is brutal — which Skyfall Khan threatens to make it — she could sweep through late. However, the class rise combined with a poor first bend rating makes her hard to trust at the head of affairs.
For Skyfall Khan, I'd want to see a clean first bend before warming to her significantly. She's talented but fragile in traffic.
My fair odds: Honour Bach 4/6, Sambar Dream 3/1, Skyfall Khan 5/1, Rathcoole Reds 7/1, Barntick Tiger 20/1.
THE VERDICT: Honour Bach, trap 2, is a thoroughly deserving favourite in a race where the models, the draw, the track bias and the form record all point emphatically in her direction — she's the one to beat.