Introduction
The 19:27 at Nottingham is a 305-metre open race with a first prize of £350 — a competitive sprint on a track that rewards pace and clean early running. Nottingham is a tight, testing circuit where the 305-metre trip is over almost before it begins, premium on early pace and the ability to negotiate the first bend without drama. Our prediction models are split on this one, which makes it genuinely interesting. The Composite Rating model puts Scooby Matilda (trap 3) firmly on top with a score of 49, while the Form Rating model flips the picture entirely, handing top billing to Moaning Hearns (trap 5) with an impressive 94. No Deep Reasoning pick is available tonight, so we're working with two models pointing in different directions. That kind of divergence is always worth digging into — and when you look under the bonnet, there are good reasons for both cases.
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What To Expect
Trap bias data from the last 90 days at Nottingham tells a clear story — trap 2 leads the way with a 19.3% win rate, followed closely by trap 3 at 18.5%. Traps 1 and 5 are notably the weakest in this field, sitting at 16.8% and 18.1% respectively. If history is any guide, runners drawn toward the middle of the track tend to have the cleanest passage around the first bend at Nottingham. Our composite model's top pick, Scooby Matilda, sits in trap 3 — the second-highest strike-rate draw in the race. That's a meaningful structural advantage and it aligns neatly with the profile of a likely winner here: a dog with early pace, drawn centrally, capable of avoiding first-bend interference.
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Form
Rebel Elizabeth is a dog I find difficult to get excited about at this distance and track. Her suitability ratings are essentially zeros for both Nottingham and the 305-metre trip, and her recent form reads poorly — three thirds and worse across her last five. The run comments are littered with interference: "FcdCk1&2" at Doncaster on July 4th, "Crd1&RnIn" at Central Park. She's a front-runner by profile but she keeps finding trouble, and stepping up in distance from 275 metres is not obviously what she needs.
Emers Summer is actually the most interesting form case in the race on her recent course and distance record. She won back-to-back at Nottingham over 305 metres in late May — "SnLd,Rls" and "Ld1,Rls-Mid" — and clearly handles this track well. The worry is that her last run was over the shorter 255-metre trip, and she faded badly in the run-in last time. Trainer F Macklin has her on the track she clearly likes, but the form model only rates her third here, and those "Crd1" comments suggest she's not always clean at the first bend.
Scooby Matilda, trained by C Weatherall, is our composite model's top-rated runner and it's not hard to see why. She has won four of her last ten, including a victory over this exact course and distance at Nottingham on June 1st — "EP,SnLd,Rls-Mid" — which is precisely the kind of run you want to see. She also won at Towcester on June 28th and went close at Sheffield in between. The last run was a half-length fourth at Towcester, which came without a clear excuse, but prior to that she was in fine fettle. Solid claims.
Brickhill Tamika has been in decent nick of late with two wins and two thirds from her last five. She won at Sunderland in May — "SAw,EP,Rls,Crd&Led1" — and also has a course win at Nottingham back on March 23rd, "EP,SnLd,Mid-Rls." However, she's consistently racing over shorter trips (261 metres at Sunderland) and the step up to 305 metres is a question mark. Her distance suitability score is only 15/100, which flags a genuine concern.
Moaning Hearns is the form model's star pick and the most intriguing runner in the race. Trained by D B Whitton, she has racked up five wins from her last ten and arrives stepping down from OR2 grade — technically a class relief. But the crucial caveat is that virtually all of her recent work has been over sprint distances: 238 metres at Harlow, 220 metres at Suffolk Downs. The step up to 305 metres is a massive jump in distance, and her track and distance suitability scores are both zero. The form model loves her raw performance figures, and rightly so — but can she truly see out the trip?
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Run Style
The pace picture here is genuinely intriguing. Rebel Elizabeth is the confirmed front-runner of the field, rated 100/100 for early pace, and she'll look to take the running from trap 1 immediately. Emers Summer is classed as a fader — high early pace rating but zero closing — so she'll try to lead or sit just off the pace and hope nothing catches her. Scooby Matilda's pace profile data is incomplete, but her run comments — "EP,SnLd" at Nottingham, "EP,Led1" at Sheffield — paint the picture of a dog who goes forward with purpose. Moaning Hearns is classified as a closer with 100/100 for closing but zero for early pace, which explains everything about why the distance question matters so much tonight. Brickhill Tamika has early pace but no closing data.
The real worry is the first bend. We have at least three dogs who want to go forward hard — Rebel Elizabeth from trap 1, Emers Summer from trap 2, and Scooby Matilda from trap 3. That's a recipe for a potential scrimmage at bend one, particularly given Rebel Elizabeth's pattern of collecting interference. If there's carnage early, Moaning Hearns from trap 5 could benefit — but only if the trip doesn't find her out.
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Speed
*seconds per 10 metres — lower is faster
The speed ratings in this race are surprisingly tight at the top, but they do tell a story. Brickhill Tamika has the best raw speed rating at 59/100 and the fastest last recorded time over this distance at 17.90 seconds — marginally quicker than Scooby Matilda's 18.03 and Emers Summer's 18.09. Scooby Matilda and Emers Summer are essentially neck and neck on raw sectional pace, with very similar sec/10m figures of 5.91 and 5.93 respectively.
The outlier that concerns me most from a speed perspective is Moaning Hearns. Her speed rating is only 14/100 — comfortably the lowest in the field — and her best time over this trip is 18.60 seconds, with her last recorded 18.99. That's slower than every other runner in this race. Now, there's a strong argument that those times were set over very different distances and conditions, and that her raw form entitles her to improvement. But it's a significant red flag when you're assessing her chances against dogs who have genuinely clocked faster Nottingham times.
Rebel Elizabeth's speed figure of 35/100 is also underwhelming, and her best time of 17.85 seconds was likely set at a different track in different conditions. Her last time of 18.81 seconds at Doncaster is not competitive with the leaders in this race on a pure pace basis.
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How The Race Might Unfold
My reading of this race is as follows: the first bend is where it will be decided. Rebel Elizabeth will push hard from trap 1 and look to establish early running, but her pattern of finding trouble — three consecutive meetings with interference — suggests she won't have it all her own way. Emers Summer from trap 2 will also be quick to stride, having shown "VQAw" pace in past runs and a tendency to lead early. Scooby Matilda from trap 3 will be pressing forward in the inside-middle, and if she can navigate the first bend cleanly — as she demonstrated so well on June 1st here — she should be prominent throughout.
Brickhill Tamika from trap 4 has early pace but that distance suitability score is a legitimate worry. If she can't sustain her effort over the full 305 metres, she may fade in the closing stages. Moaning Hearns from trap 5 will almost certainly be last or near-last at bend one — she's a closer by nature — and her entire race depends on whether the leaders tire enough for her to reel them in, which at only 305 metres is a very tight ask. I think the pace from Rebel Elizabeth and Emers Summer could set it up for a closer in theory, but Scooby Matilda's blend of early pace and track familiarity means she may simply be gone before Moaning Hearns gets into her stride.
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Final Conclusions
My analysis aligns with the composite model: Scooby Matilda is the one to be on tonight. She has won over this course and distance before, she's drawn in the second-best trap for Nottingham, her best and last times are competitive, and she goes forward with early intent. The composite model tops her at 49 — the highest rating in the field — and I think that reflects the totality of her credentials accurately. She's not flashy, but she's consistent and she knows this track.
The main danger, in my view, is Emers Summer. Two wins here in May and a clear affinity for Nottingham make her a genuine threat, particularly from the highest-win-rate draw in the race. If she gets a clean first bend, she's dangerous. Brickhill Tamika has the speed but the distance switch counts against her.
As for Moaning Hearns — I respect the form model's view and those performance figures are real, but a closer stepping up 67 metres in trip at a track and distance she's never tried is asking a lot, even with class relief.
Fair odds: Scooby Matilda 6/4, Emers Summer 5/2, Brickhill Tamika 7/2.
THE VERDICT: Scooby Matilda has the course form, the draw, and the early pace to dominate this 305-metre sprint — take her to lead and hold on.