The 18:29 Open Race at Doncaster over 483m looked like a clean litmus test for the model heading in, with Swift Jericho installed as the top-rated pick from trap 1. It didn't work out that way, and the reasons why are all there in the running comments.
Swift Jericho got only a 'lucky early pace' out of the boxes before being 'impeded and forced to check' at the second bend, a phrase that tells you everything - his chance was compromised through no fault of his own, and he trailed home fifth. Meanwhile Blackstone Ten, drawn in trap 2 and rated only fourth in our model's assessment, was 'crowded and led' at the first bend and simply never gave it up, holding on for the win in 30.12 at odds of 3.75.
The placed dogs told a more conventional story. Redbrick Beckham, our second-rated pick, ran precisely to that rating - wide and early paced, checked at the first bend but running on well for second, right where the model expected him. Vair Twinkletoes, rated third, also finished third after a troubled passage of his own, bumped and forced to check at the first before being crowded again at the second. Three of the six runners in this race suffered traffic trouble in the opening two bends, which says more about a messy break than about the relative merits of the dogs involved.
The upshot: this was a race decided by trouble in running rather than a genuine formline reversal. Redbrick Beckham and Vair Twinkletoes both ran to their ratings despite being knocked about, which is actually a point in their favour going forward - dogs that hold their position under pressure are usually worth another look. Swift Jericho's chance was voided by the check rather than beaten fairly, so there's a case for treating this run as a non-event rather than a form dip. Blackstone Ten, for his part, won it well enough once clear, but the manner of the run - being crowded into the lead rather than winning it on merit from the boxes - means he'll want to prove it again in a cleaner race before being fully trusted at this level.