The most instructive race of Thursday night was the OR2 over 480 metres at Newcastle at 19:44, a five-runner open that turned the market on its head and left us with plenty to chew on.
The money said Untold Ariary. Sent off at 1.80 from trap six, she was our top pick too, sharing the best composite score in the race at 64. And the frustrating part is that she had every chance. The comment line reads Wide, ClearRun, which is about as excuse-free as a losing run gets. No bumps, no crowding, a clean trip on the outside, and she still passed the line fourth, beaten a head for third. When a short-priced favourite gets a clear run and cannot land a blow, the race is telling you something.
What beat her was old-fashioned early control. Newline Kielty, at 2.38 from trap two, led at the run-up and never saw another dog, stopping the clock at 28.73. She was our third pick at a composite of 53, so the model had her in the frame without expecting this much. The manner of it was the impressive part. Over 480 metres at Newcastle, a dog that owns the first bend forces everyone else to race in traffic, and that is exactly how it unfolded behind her.
The run of the race arguably came from Witton Gucci, a 26.00 outsider from trap five who kept finding to take second, a length and three quarters back. Big-priced dogs that finish their races strongly in open company are always worth a second look, and the market will not adjust to one run. Fabulous Show, our second pick, was bumped at the run-up and did well to salvage third half a length further back.
The upshot: mark all three placed dogs. Newline Kielty is a front runner with a win at this level under her belt now and will be favourite next time. Witton Gucci at that price was no fluke on the clock. And Fabulous Show ran better than fourth place in the betting suggests, with a legitimate excuse. As for Untold Ariary, the wide draw and a flat effort ask questions only her next run can answer. One to watch, but with the ratings pencil held a little looser.