The 13:17 A6 over 500 metres at Hove on Friday was shaping up to be a straightforward test for Troy Smokin Joe, who carried the top composite score of 55 into the race and was priced accordingly. What the betting market and the model could not account for was a collision at the first bend that changed everything.
Troy Smokin Joe, drawn trap 3, was bumped at bend one and fell. The run comment tells the full story: departed the race there and then. Simultaneously, Makeyamindup, the 2.10 market favourite drawn on the rail in trap 1, was badly baulked at bend one and never recovered, eventually trailing home fifth at 31.27. In the space of a few seconds, the two most fancied runners in the race had been eliminated or derailed by the same incident.
Into the gap came Melbury Tyr, a 12/1 shot drawn in trap 2 who had been predicted to finish fourth. The run comment reads CrdMidMid and Led1, CkNrLn, meaning he found a way through the middle of the chaos, picked up the lead from bend one, and held on to win in 30.35. Stormy Bluey, who had been badly blocked wide at the quarter-mile marker, ran on into second at 30.47. Courty Ash in trap 6 kept a clean line and took third.
The result is a reminder of how quickly a single incident at the first bend can reorganise a race completely. Troy Smokin Joe is worth noting for future reference. The data rated him highly for a reason, and a fall on the first bend tells you nothing useful about his ability. Next time he lines up in A6 company at Hove, the composite score should be respected. Makeyamindup had his race ended by external interference and deserves the same charitable reading. Melbury Tyr won it fair and square but benefited from a lot going wrong around him.