The 19:11 Open Race over Nottingham's 500m looks a proper puzzle on paper, and that's exactly what makes it the pick of the night. Romeo Ability (trap 3) is comfortably the fastest dog in the race, with a personal best of 28.62 and form that's been consistently high class, but the conditions data at this track and grade tells a surprising story: the fastest dog in the field has won barely one in ten races here. Raw speed, in other words, has been a poor guide at Nottingham OR level, and that opens the door for Zappa.
Zappa (trap 2) gets the vote instead, and the case for her is about as strong as this sport offers: she won her last start in exactly these conditions, same track, same trip, same grade. Her suitability figures for this course and distance are the best of anyone in the race, and she's shown she can race handy to the pace or drop in and finish, which matters on a track where positioning has counted for more than the clock. Trap 2 hasn't been a standout box at this grade but it's solid enough, and with course-and-distance form this strong that's a minor worry rather than a real one.
It won't be straightforward. Romeo Ability's pure pace makes her a live danger if she can carry that speed further than she has managed before, and Magical Supreme arrives with the best average figures in the race on the back of a straightforward win last time out, stepping up from OR3. The concern there is entirely structural: no proven course or distance form, and trap 6 has blanked from 35 runs at this grade. Toolmaker Quick, meanwhile, hasn't raced since last October and is very much stepping into the unknown regardless of what she showed before the break.
It's a race where the data argues against just backing the fastest dog on the card, and Zappa's repeat-conditions win gives her the strongest all-round case.