Louth Commercials A3 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Skelpersthirteenb 2y 13 | George Matthews(NI) — 11% R9 W1 P4 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 52 (6) | 64 (4) | 60 (5) | 58 (5) | 66 (4) | 72 (1) | 58 (2) | 56 (3) | 52 (5) | - | 1 | - | - | 14 | 60 | 44 | 4 | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Crypto Currencyd 3y 14 | Nalin Monerawela — 7% R14 W1 P6 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 67 (3) | 60 (6) | 68 (3) | 53 (4) | 70 (3) | 78 (2) | 55 (4) | 62 (3) | 73 (3) | 69 (4) | 29 | 22 | 22 | 13 | 65 | 49 | 2 | - | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Two Old Streetd 2y 34 | - | - | 52 | - | 66 (2) | 62 (4) | 56 (4) | 53 (5) | 56 (4) | 61 (4) | 82 (1) | 62 (2) | 71 (3) | 56 (5) | 24 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 62 | 38 | 3 | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Fairy Spellb 3y 13 | Brendan Mullan(NI) — 10% R10 W1 P4 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | - | 59 (5) | 69 (2) | 49 (5) | 61 (3) | 42 (5) | 64 (4) | 55 (5) | 57 (5) | 67 (5) | 60 (5) | - | 15 | - | 15 | 58 | 39 | 5 | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Scroggy Figb 2y 23 | - | - | - | - | 67 (6) | 49 (3) | 56 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 58 | 39 | 6 | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Kilcarn Scobied 2y 35 | - | - | 55 | - | 94 (1) | 96 (1) | 83 (5) | 77 (3) | 82 (2) | 62 (2) | 58 (4) | 66 (5) | 63 (3) | - | 28 | 41 | 12 | 13 | 81 | 47 | 1 | - | - | |
The wildcard of the race and the most fascinating runner on the card. An average performance of 81 is 14 points above the field — an enormous gap. And the sprint form is outstanding: won at S0 rated 94, won at S1 rated 96, and won at S0 rated 83 — three recent high-quality wins at 400 metres. But the 525 metre trip is a completely different test, and her three runs at this distance have all ended without a win. Distance suitability of just 13 is very low — the model does not believe the sprint form carries to the longer trip. If she can translate that raw class to 525 metres, she wins easily. But three attempts at 525 metres without winning, combined with the model's low distance suitability score, means she is better assessed as the most dangerous outsider rather than the selection. An extraordinary runner to watch, but the distance question makes her too risky to pick.
PICK: Best composite (53), improving form, 33% C&D win rate. Has won here and the improvement curve suggests she can do it again in A3 company.
Zero C&D wins and declining recent form. Below the leaders on all key metrics.
Zero wins from ten course-and-distance attempts. Consistent honest placer but not a winner at this combination.
One C&D win at lower grade. Consistent placer but below the leaders on composite and speed.
Zero wins from ten C&D attempts and low speed rating. Unlikely to break that pattern today.
Benbradagh Bono leads on composite (53), average performance (67), and has a 33% C&D win rate from 3 attempts. Kilcarn Scobie has best overall avgP (81) from sprint wins (94, 96 rated) but 0 wins from 3 attempts at 525m, distance suitability only 13. Race is between settled consistency vs untested sprint brilliance.
No trap bias data — Irish track not in UK condition database
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 400m | 525m | 570m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skelpersthirteen | — | 0.563 | 0.553 |
| 2 | Crypto Currency | — | 0.560 | — |
| 3 | Two Old Street | 0.549 | 0.563 | — |
| 4 | Fairy Spell | — | 0.563 | — |
| 5 | Scroggy Fig | 0.544 | — | — |
| 6 | Kilcarn Scobie | 0.543 | 0.559 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.