Carrick Scholsey leads on AP71 — 6 points above the field average, at the class override threshold where pace concerns become secondary. His extreme Closer profile (EP0/CS100) is ideally set up behind two EP100 Faders in T1 and T4 who will burn each other out. L6 form [61,91,74,70,77,56] includes a stunning 91 peak that shows elite capability, though the 56-61 lows demonstrate inconsistency. That 91 is the highest single performance in any Dunstall Park race tonight. Bnd10 is very poor — he loses significant ground at the turn — but the class override means his superior quality should compensate as the race unfolds past the bend into the closing stages. No CD runs and sT0/sD35 are weak but again the class override applies. Burton at 36% is a strong trainer. The combination of best AP, a 91 peak showing top-end ability, Closer profile perfectly placed behind Fader chaos, and strong trainer support makes him the pick. Medium rather than Strong because Bnd10 is genuinely concerning and the form inconsistency (56-91 range) means his floor is low.