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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Conlig Boyd 2y 28 | L A Taylorson — 16% R263 W41 P148 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 53 | 65 (1) | 50 (3) | 47 (4) | 55 (2) | 53 (3) | 71 (1) | 46 (5) | 51 (2) | 70 (1) | 52 (5) | 5 | 40 | - | 38 | 56 | 39 | 2 | 7/4JF | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Colrose Blueb 3y 15 | A R Upton — 9% R93 W8 P47 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 55 | 44 (4) | 50 (3) | 61 (6) | 44 (3) | 65 (6) | 37 (3) | 49 (5) | 69 (5) | - | - | 2 | 26 | - | 7 | 51 | 37 | 3 | 2/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Troubled Waterb 4y 16 | D T Gomersall — 14% R139 W20 P67 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 42 | 47 (4) | 69 (1) | 45 (5) | 81 (2) | 63 (4) | 46 (5) | 50 (4) | 55 (3) | 41 (6) | 57 (4) | 27 | 21 | - | 16 | 56 | 44 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Effernogue Daved 3yN/R 4 | L A Taylorson — 16% R263 W41 P148 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 69 | 47 | 76 (1) | 54 (5) | 64 (2) | 58 (3) | 63 (3) | 73 (1) | 30 (4) | 31 (3) | 26 (5) | 36 (1) | 35 | 34 | - | 37 | 57 | 60 | - | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Holding Ginab 2y 3 | P Webster — 17% R94 W16 P36 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 78 | 47 | 60 (5) | 42 (6) | 57 (4) | 60 (4) | 57 (6) | 77 (4) | 57 (3) | 70 (5) | 66 (6) | 76 (1) | 2 | 23 | - | - | 59 | 59 | 1 | 7/4JF | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conlig Boy | 30.11 | 30.39 | 30.28 | 42 | +0.17 | Best trap in field | |
| 2 | Colrose Blue | 29.83 | 30.20 | 30.53 | 46 | +0.70 | 0 wins last 6 | |
| 4 | Troubled Water | 29.89 | 30.18 | 30.39 | 48 | +0.50 | Stepping back down from 660m | |
| 5 | Effernogue Dave | 29.66 | 29.83 | 29.66 | 69 | 0.00 | Won last time out | |
| 6 | Holding Gina | 29.55 | 29.55 | 29.55 | 78 | 0.00 | Only 1 run at this trip |
This is Sheffield's Saturday handicap over 500m, where the marks are designed to level the field, and the numbers back that up in an unusual way — the fastest dog on the clock has actually been the worst long-term bet in this race type, while the slowest-rated has quietly been the best returning angle. Trap 1 is a clear structural edge here, winning one in four and the only box showing a positive return, while trap 5 has been the weakest. Conlig Boy gets that prized inside draw and arrives with a recent win under his belt. Effernogue Dave has been in tremendous form with a win last time out and the second-quickest recent times, but he's drawn in the least productive box. Holding Gina is the intriguing outsider — she clocked an exceptional time on her only run at this course and distance, dropping out of a much stronger field, though the evidence is thin.
Recent form all graded at A6 level at this course and distance, no trials involved. Won last time out and has two wins from his last six starts here, showing he's racing to a solid level right now. Fast away but tends to lose ground in the closing stages, so he needs to make the most of his early speed. Trap 1 has been by far the strongest box in this handicap, the only one showing a positive return, and that structural edge is the main case for him tonight given raw pace figures have been an unreliable guide in this race type.
Recent form all graded at A4 level at this course and distance, no trials. Won last time out and has been racing at a consistently high level, with two wins from his last six starts here and the second-fastest recent times in the field. A balanced runner who can race on the pace or come from just off it. The catch is trap 5, the weakest box in this handicap by some distance — the one thing standing between him and being a clear-cut pick.
Recent form graded at A4 and A5 level at this course and distance, no trials. No wins from her last six starts here, including one run where she was checked and knocked over early and finished distanced. The slowest recent times of this five and trained from a yard with a modest strike rate. Hard to make a strong case for her tonight.
Recent form graded but mixed — two runs at 660 metres sandwiched among her usual 500m starts, so tonight is a step back down in trip. A confirmed closer with an inconsistent pace pattern, meaning she needs things to fall right rather than dictating matters herself. One win from her three most recent starts at this exact course and distance. Trap 4 is only moderate in this grade.
Recent grades are a mix — a tough A1 contest at this course and distance last time, plus starts at a different track altogether, so there isn't much to judge her on at Sheffield specifically. That single Sheffield run over this trip produced by far the fastest time of anyone in tonight's field, dropping out of a much stronger grade tonight. But it's one run, and a strong finisher with an inconsistent pace pattern doesn't always translate cleanly between venues. Interesting rather than reliable.
Key insight: An unusual pattern in this handicap: the fastest-rated dog in the field has actually been the weakest angle historically (16.0% win), while the sixth-fastest has been the best (27.4%) — a sign that raw pace figures are less reliable once the marks are applied. Trap 1 is the standout structural factor at 25.9% and the only box showing a positive return.
T1:25.9% T2:18.3% T3:16.1% T4:17.1% T5:14.1% T6:16.5%
1,264 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Conlig Boy | 61 | 0 | Fader |
2Colrose Blue | 58 | 6 | Fader |
4Troubled Water | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Effernogue Dave | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
6Holding Gina | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 480m | 500m | 630m | 660m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conlig Boy | 0.564 | — | 0.608 | — | — |
| 2 | Colrose Blue | — | — | 0.604 | — | — |
| 4 | Troubled Water | — | — | 0.604 | — | 0.616 |
| 6 | Holding Gina | — | 0.604 | 0.591 | 0.619 | 0.617 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.