Avarua Sarah's course-and-distance record is the single most impressive statistic on the entire Hove card — 10 runs at Hove 500m producing 4 wins and 8 places for an 80% place rate and 40% win rate. At A1 level, from a sample of 10 runs, this is a dog who has comprehensively proved she handles this specific venue and distance despite her Fader profile (EP62/CS11). The numbers suggest that at this track, her early pace (EP62) is enough to establish a lead that she can sustain to the line, likely because her class (AP66 — highest in the field) allows her to maintain a tempo that lower-rated dogs simply cannot match. Her track suitability of 62 is the best in the field by a wide margin, and PC81 provides the consistency that her Closer rivals completely lack. From T1 she gets the inside rail — critical for a front-running type, as it allows her to save ground on every bend and set the fractions without being pressured from outside. In a field where both closers have PC0 (completely unreliable), Avarua Sarah's proven, consistent Hove form makes her the clear pick regardless of the general Hove closer bias.