Steps down to D4 after running at B3 grade and brings a form and pace profile that towers above this field. The clockings alone — the fastest in the race by some distance — and a powerful early pace give him the tools to overcome the structural penalty of drawing in the worst box. Running 275 metres for the first time is the one genuine uncertainty, but his pace ratings suggest he will be up on the pace and clear of traffic through the first bend, partly negating the trap disadvantage. The class gap here is simply too large to ignore: D Calvert's runner is in the wrong box for this grade historically, but on raw ability he should be winning this.