Harriestown Lee makes the pick on the strength of the field's most consistent recent form trajectory. Her average performance mark of 65 is the field's best, and the pattern behind it is compelling: a performance of 74 in her most recent run where she finished second, backed by a sequence of 65, 67, 47, 67, 65 across the five preceding races. This is a dog who shows up reliably at A2 level — the single mark of 47 is an anomaly in an otherwise unwavering pattern. Her speed figure of 53 is second in the field, and her All-Rounder running style is more compatible with Central Park's first-bend bias than the pure Closers in this race. Drawing from T6 — which carries an 18.55% strike rate at A2 491m — is the structural concession, but in a race where the model is producing weak signals and raw form consistency is the most reliable discriminator, her sustained performance edge is the clearest and most defensible pick available.