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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 2 | ▶ Aghaburren Millyb 3y 110 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 55 | 42 (5) | 34 (5) | 63 (2) | 84 (1) | 83 (1) | 60 (3) | 61 (1) | 60 (1) | 34 (5) | 51 (2) | 33 | 29 | - | 34 | 56 | 40 | 4 | 5/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Sparks Charmb 3y 25 | S Watson — 28% R432 W122 P294 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | - | 23 (4) | 36 (2) | 29 (4) | 43 (1) | 29 (4) | 42 (1) | 34 (3) | 34 (1) | 38 (3) | - | 36 | 34 | - | - | 33 | 31 | 5 | 6/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Busy Cailinb 4y 28 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 55 | 60 (1) | 47 (4) | 46 (3) | 48 (2) | 87 (3) | 71 (1) | 85 (4) | 78 (4) | 67 (5) | - | 49 | 34 | - | 13 | 62 | 40 | 3 | 11/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Redbrick Adeleb 2y 110 | J W Gaskin — 31% R276 W85 P205 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 48 | 61 (1) | 46 (4) | 61 (1) | 38 (5) | 78 (2) | 83 (1) | 83 (1) | 72 (2) | 63 (3) | 48 (3) | 39 | 42 | - | 32 | 61 | 45 | 2 | 5/4F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Miller Spiritd 2y 29 | S Watson — 28% R432 W122 P294 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 43 | 59 (4) | 78 (2) | 67 (4) | 65 (3) | 89 (1) | 62 (1) | 61 (1) | 47 (3) | 50 (2) | 47 (3) | 41 | 37 | - | 42 | 65 | 34 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aghaburren Milly | 27.98 | 28.31 | 28.19 | 46 | +0.21 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Sparks Charm | No proven form at 450m — all recent runs over 275m sprints. Times not comparable. | — | No 450m form | ||||
| 4 | Busy Cailin | 28.16 | 28.20 | 28.24 | 46 | +0.08 | Weakest trap | |
| 5 | Redbrick Adele | 27.91 | 28.12 | 28.15 | 52 | +0.24 | Danger | |
| 6 | Miller Spirit | 27.82 | 27.93 | 27.83 | 62 | +0.01 | 85-day layoff | |
Doncaster's 450m trip is a fair galloping test where the composite model does decent work here — the top-rated dog wins better than one race in four in this grade. Trap one is the strongest box at just over 22%, with the widest draw not far behind at nearly 22% too, while the traps in the middle of the boxes around trap four and trap five have been the weakest, both under 19%. None of tonight's five ran from trap one, so it's really trap two against trap six for whatever positional edge is going. Miller Spirit, out widest in trap six, arrives with the strongest recorded times and the best average performance in the field, but he hasn't raced since mid-April and the long break is a genuine unknown. Redbrick Adele, from trap five, has been racing consistently at this exact track and trip and carries the form of the field's best-performing trainer. Aghaburren Milly and Busy Cailin fill out the middle ground on modest recent form, while Sparks Charm steps up sharply from sprint distances and looks the outsider on what she's shown so far.
The fastest dog in this field on recorded times and the strongest average performance in the race, having spent recent months mixing it in much stronger open-class company before this drop down in grade. Has a win from four runs over course and distance at this exact trip and races from trap six, the second-best box in this grade. The one real snag is he has not raced since mid-April — a near three-month absence that leaves his sharpness a genuine question mark, but on pure ability he looks clear of this field if he turns up fit.
Has been racing consistently at this exact track and trip, with a win and two places from her last three starts over the 450 metres here. Trained by the yard with by far the best win rate in this race — above 30% — and she is the model's top-rated runner tonight on the numbers. Drawn in a box that has underperformed in this grade, which is the one mark against her, but the form and the trainer both carry real weight.
Modest recent form at this level, currently in a leaner spell after some big performances back in June when stepped up in grade briefly. Does have two wins from four starts over course and distance here, which is a solid record, and she gets a share of the early pace from trap two. Capable of running into the frame without looking the most likely winner.
Steps up sharply from sprinting over 275 metres to this considerably longer 450m trip for the first time, with no proven form at the distance and the weakest performance figures of the five runners here. A big step into the unknown against dogs who have already shown they stay this far. One to leave out of your calculations tonight.
Recent form at this trip is steady without sparkling — three finishes worth mid-to-high 40s in her last three starts here. Tends to finish races rather than lead them, but she is drawn in the weakest trap in the field for this grade, which works against her getting the run she needs. Others have stronger claims tonight.
Key insight: From 2,024 runs at this track, trip and grade, the top-rated dog on the model wins just over a quarter of the time, and the fastest dog in the field wins even more often — just over 26%. Trap one and trap six are clearly the best boxes, both above 21%, while traps four and five have been the weakest at under 19%.
T1:22.0% T2:19.2% T3:19.4% T4:18.4% T5:18.6% T6:21.7%
2,024 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
2Aghaburren Milly | 69 | 0 | Fader |
3Sparks Charm | — | — | No data |
4Busy Cailin | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Redbrick Adele | 31 | 100 | Closer |
6Miller Spirit | 100 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 450m | 483m | 661m | 780m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aghaburren Milly | — | 0.629 | 0.621 | — | — |
| 3 | Sparks Charm | 0.630 | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | Busy Cailin | — | 0.626 | 0.621 | 0.636 | 0.633 |
| 5 | Redbrick Adele | — | 0.624 | 0.622 | — | — |
| 6 | Miller Spirit | — | 0.621 | 0.618 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.