Selker Bay Mary leads the model's ratings with the best bend ability in the field at 70 — a standout figure — and decent early pace to be prominent through the first bend. The rail draw at 20.7% provides structural support. However, the extreme fading profile with a closing speed of just 4 is a serious concern over four bends at this tight track. She'll lead through the first bend and potentially the second, but history shows that faders with closing ratios this low progressively weaken. Recent form of 36, 31, 39 is modest, and the suitability scores are below average. She has the ability but the pace profile is a proven vulnerability.