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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Lizzy Jezabelleb 5y 37 | P J Manley — 23% R61 W14 P43 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 100 | 55 (1) | 56 (1) | 38 (3) | 48 (2) | 24 (4) | 19 (4) | 16 (3) | 22 (2) | 65 (1) | 38 (4) | 31 | 34 | - | 13 | 41 | 27 | 1 | 7/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Kirabilly Pearlb 2y 6 | L B Pruhs — 15% R123 W18 P73 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 0 | 23 (4) | 27 (2) | 26 (4) | 19 (5) | 24 (3) | 60 (1) | 26 (5) | 56 (2) | 57 (1) | - | 15 | 20 | 3 | 18 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 13/8JF | |
| 4 | ▶ Savana Triked 3y 4 | E Gowler — 25% R56 W14 P40 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 25 (3) | 31 (1) | 23 (4) | 25 (2) | 27 (2) | 22 (4) | 15 (5) | 14 (6) | 25 (3) | - | 33 | 23 | 10 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 4 | 11/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Killieford Zoeb 3y 6 | D Calvert — 17% R552 W93 P317 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 31 (2) | 23 (4) | 27 (4) | 23 (5) | 22 (5) | 27 (4) | 26 (2) | 26 (3) | 29 (3) | 28 (4) | 32 | 29 | 29 | 17 | 26 | 27 | 3 | 13/8JF | |
| 6 | ▶ Cockney Tand 3y 3 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R328 W59 P194 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 22 (5) | 31 (1) | 26 (2) | 26 (2) | 22 (4) | 19 (4) | 23 (4) | - | - | - | 40 | 34 | 10 | 35 | 25 | 29 | 2 | 11/4 | |
The class act in this field by a comfortable margin. Has won her last two races at B6 over 450m — a notably harder grade than D3 — posting times of 28.80 and 28.72 that show she is in peak condition right now. The move to 275m is a distance change and represents an unknown, but her exceptional early pace profile and perfect first-bend rating suggest she has the sharpness to lead throughout at this shorter trip. Drawn in the best structural position in the race at trap one, which wins 27.3% at D3 from a large dataset. The composite model shows her as R2 by two points, a margin well within noise — and when class, trap, pace profile, and recent form all point to the same runner, that runner deserves to be the pick. Her trainer Manley operates at a 26% win rate and has placed her deliberately in this easier company.
Speed edge but worst draw and no C&D wins. The danger only if the pick fails to fire.
Decent draw but Closer profile and slow-away habit are wrong for 275m. Others preferred.
Useful C&D form and decent trap, but stepping up in grade and outclassed by the top runner.
Narrow composite lead within noise range. Outclassed by the pick on overall evidence.
1,538 runs at D3. T1 best at 27.3%, T2 strong at 24.1%. 5-runner field with no T3. Composite gap between R1 (T6) and R2 (T1) is just 2 points — trap and class evidence overrides model.
T1:27.3% T2:24.1% T4:22.3% T5:17.5% T6:19.3%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.