Composite R1 (40), Performance R1 (51), Speed R2 (54) and Bend R2 (50) — four lenses where she ranks first or second on three of them, with the fourth being a one-point speed gap (54 vs 55) that is within statistical noise. Composite and performance leadership are consistent and both lenses carry 19-20% win rates at D2 261m. Track suitability 34, distance 37 and trap suitability 30 from T2 confirm Sunderland sprint experience. The draw is the acknowledged weakness: T2 at D2 261m returns only 13.67% from 139 runs — the second-worst box in the race behind T5. The selection is made on the basis that the speed differential to Cape Quest is too small to privilege Speed R1 over three other metric rankings, and that the draw disadvantage, while real, affects both leading contenders approximately equally. Tentative confidence reflects the genuine draw constraint and the D2 grade, not uncertainty about the rating order.