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Welcome To Shelbourne Park A0 525
Model does not predict this race
Open-grade races at Shelbourne Park are not predicted — insufficient model signal for elite open competition
This race is excluded from all accuracy and results tracking.
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Harlequin Gee Upd 3y 27 | Scott Phelan — 27% R15 W4 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 96 (1) | 57 (5) | 73 (2) | 61 (5) | 97 (1) | 38 (5) | 94 (1) | 60 (4) | 70 (3) | 95 (1) | 21 | 52 | 43 | 49 | 74 | 52 | 2 | 11/8 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Brother Thomasd 2y 35 | Michael J O'Donovan — 37% R19 W7 P13 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | - | 53 (5) | 70 (3) | 75 (4) | 50 (4) | 52 (4) | 48 (4) | 61 (3) | 72 (1) | 71 (1) | - | 26 | 18 | 15 | 30 | 61 | 37 | 1 | 6/5 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Old Alaskad 2y 38 | - | - | 49 | - | 84 (2) | 65 (4) | 66 (3) | 53 (5) | 88 (2) | 97 (1) | 95 (1) | 97 (1) | 70 (2) | 74 (3) | 14 | 38 | 39 | 43 | 77 | 48 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Ballinabola Baled 3y 14 | - | - | 47 | - | 57 (5) | 64 (4) | 96 (1) | 57 (6) | 71 (4) | 63 (6) | 71 (4) | - | - | - | - | 11 | - | 12 | 68 | 31 | 4 | 14/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Grouchos Hoffad 3y 15 | Pat Buckley — 24% R46 W11 P27 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 21 | - | 71 (4) | 37 (6) | 53 (3) | 32 (6) | 53 (3) | 50 (3) | 65 (1) | 41 (6) | 55 (2) | 55 (2) | 36 | 43 | 43 | 23 | 51 | 40 | 5 | 7/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brother Thomas | 29.00 | 29.00 | 29.00 | 59 | 0.00 | 0 wins from 6 | |
| 1 | Harlequin Gee Up | 29.03 | 29.16 | 29.17 | 53 | +0.14 | Model pick | |
| 4 | Ballinabola Bale | 29.06 | 29.26 | 29.28 | 49 | +0.22 | ||
| 3 | Old Alaska | 29.15 | 29.15 | 29.15 | 52 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 6 | Millabbey Roxie | 29.19 | 29.32 | 29.57 | 41 | +0.38 | 0 wins from 6 | |
| 5 | Grouchos Hoffa | 29.29 | 29.72 | 30.14 | 23 | +0.85 | 0 wins from 6 |
This looks like a race that will be shaped from the inside. Harlequin Gee Up jumps well from the red jacket and has the pace to lead into the first bend, with Brother Thomas alongside him in the blue and the quickest recorded times in this field. Old Alaska, drawn in the white jacket, tends to sit close up and finish through horses rather than lead outright, so if the two pace-setters take each other on early she is the one best placed to pounce late. Ballinabola Bale arrives on the back of a track switch and looks capable of an early scrap from trap four. Grouchos Hoffa and Millabbey Roxie both look held on the figures and are more likely to be finishing the race than shaping it. If the front two burn each other up, the runner-up spot becomes the real battleground and that favours the more patient sort in the field.
Consistent without winning recently — placed last time and has been in and around it in five of her last six starts, with only one blank in that run. The white jacket hasn't been the standout draw at this track, trip and grade, but she doesn't rely on the box to get involved, tending to race close up and finish through the field rather than lead outright. She isn't the quickest on the raw clock — a couple of these have faster recorded times — but she's the most consistently competitive on the figures across the board, with solid course form built up over multiple runs here. No trainer record is available for this box, which is a gap in the picture, but the dog's own profile does enough of the talking. The ratings have her ahead of this field, though not emphatically so, and with the top-rated dog winning under one in five at this trip and grade, this isn't a bet to be certain about.
Coming off a win last time but form has been mixed either side of it — winning twice from six starts, including a smart success at this same track and trip earlier this month. The red jacket has been a productive draw here, second only to trap four, and he tends to get on with things from the front which suits a track where racing room at the first bend is at a premium. On the clock he isn't quite the fastest in this field but he's not far off it, and his trainer wins close to three in ten overall, a healthy return. The concern is a scratchy middle section of his recent form — a fifth and another fifth sandwiched around a strong effort — so the consistency isn't quite there yet. Still, on a going-day form line he looks the most dangerous runner in this race on the data, with early pace and a fair draw putting him in the game from flag fall.
This is a tricky one to assess — her last recorded run was back in February, so she returns from a lengthy absence with no recent form to lean on. Before the layoff she'd been racing at this track over this trip without much luck, finishing in the second half of the field in her last few runs, though she did find the winner's enclosure twice further back when racing in weaker company. The stripes are a fair enough draw and her trainer has a strong strike rate over the last little while, winning better than four in ten, which offers some encouragement that connections haven't sent her out here without a chance. But a five-month gap between races is a significant unknown, and freshness could cut either way. One to treat with real caution rather than back with confidence.
Arrives off the back of a track switch, having done her recent racing at a different venue before stepping up to this level and finishing down the field last time out. Before that she had won and been competitive in slightly weaker company, so there is some ability there, but she hasn't yet proven it at this specific track. The black jacket has actually been the best-performing draw here, which works in her favour, and no trainer record is available to muddy the picture either way. On the clock she sits mid-pack — not the standout, but not disgraced either. Respected by the ratings but the step up in company and the change of track leave a fair amount to find on what she's shown so far.
Drops back in company today after a run of starts at the tougher grade above, where he was competitive without winning — finishing in the frame twice from his last three at that level. That class drop is a genuine positive and he arrives as the fastest dog in this field on the raw clock, with the best recorded time and the highest speed figure of anyone here. The blue jacket has been a solid draw at this trip and grade, sitting just behind the two best boxes. His trainer wins close to four in ten overall, another point in his favour. The one query is that none of his last six starts have produced a win, so the pure speed needs to translate into a result rather than another respectable defeat. Could easily figure in the finish if that class drop is as significant as it looks.
Struggling for form, finishing in the bottom half of the field in each of his last three starts and without a win across his last six. The orange jacket has been the least productive draw at this trip and grade, which compounds the issue, and he's also comfortably the slowest dog in this field on the clock — his best recorded time is nearly three tenths shy of the fastest here, and his most recent run was slower still. His trainer does have a fair record in these exact conditions, winning one from five, which offers a small crumb of encouragement, but there is a lot working against him between the draw and the pace figures. Up against it on today's numbers, and nothing in the recent form suggests an obvious reason for a turnaround.
Key insight: Ratings are a modest guide at this trip and grade — the top-rated dog wins fewer than one in five, so the form book and the clock both need weighing carefully
Fairly even spread across the boxes here — trap four edges it at 19%, trap five the weakest at 14%, but the gap isn't the kind that should dictate a bet on its own
691 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 350m | 525m | 550m | 575m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harlequin Gee Up | — | 0.550 | 0.546 | — |
| 2 | Brother Thomas | — | 0.543 | 0.550 | — |
| 3 | Old Alaska | — | 0.545 | 0.547 | 0.555 |
| 4 | Ballinabola Bale | — | 0.555 | 0.553 | — |
| 5 | Grouchos Hoffa | 0.544 | 0.554 | 0.544 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.