Homing Dogs With Home Run Hounds Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Blackfriars Buzzb 2y 16 | J Daly — 19% R212 W41 P116 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 46 | 61 (4) | 64 (3) | 67 (4) | 58 (4) | 81 (1) | 44 (5) | 71 (4) | 61 (5) | 59 (4) | 54 (6) | 25 | 27 | 8 | 15 | 63 | 38 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Deelish Denzeld 2y 17 | J Gray — 17% R219 W38 P129 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 56 | 53 (5) | 76 (2) | 78 (3) | 41 (2) | 60 (4) | 77 (3) | 68 (2) | 43 (4) | 74 (4) | - | 31 | 26 | 40 | 25 | 63 | 48 | 3 | 15/8 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Soapbox Kelib 2y 16 | S W Deakin — 15% R551 W80 P255 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 58 | 85 (1) | 52 (6) | 57 (5) | 72 (3) | 51 (5) | 68 (4) | 84 (1) | 75 (1) | 36 (1) | 37 (5) | 40 | 15 | - | 26 | 66 | 51 | 4 | 6/4F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Skyfall Kitzieb 1yN/RREP 15 | E O Driver — 21% R313 W67 P196 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | 44 | 67 (3) | 82 (1) | 46 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 23 | - | 23 | 66 | 40 | - | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Proper Sandyb 3yREP 18 | B Denby — 20% R270 W54 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 53 | 69 (3) | 65 (4) | 61 (4) | 71 (3) | 85 (1) | 86 (1) | 77 (2) | 62 (3) | 59 (1) | 36 (5) | 34 | 52 | 46 | 38 | 69 | 53 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Roanna Ashb 3yREP 17 | P M Holland — 16% R44 W7 P23 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | 44 | 75 (2) | 58 (5) | 84 (1) | 75 (5) | 65 (4) | 54 (4) | 46 (5) | 81 (6) | 66 (2) | - | 40 | 37 | 26 | 36 | 68 | 55 | 1 | 6/1 | - | |
The selection, and the case rests primarily on an outstanding course and distance record. Three wins from nine runs at Nottingham 500 metres is a 33% strike rate — significantly above the base rate for this grade — and those wins have come at A2 and A3 level showing she has done it in this company before. Recent form reads P69 last time out at Doncaster 483 metres, then P65, P61 in the two before that, all at A2 grade. She is a Fader who goes prominently early and the 500m trip at Nottingham suits her style — she has won here repeatedly and knows how to front-run the bend. Performance rank 1 in the field at 69. Trap 5 at A2 wins 19.15% — not the most exciting draw but perfectly workable. The track record is the primary argument and it is a strong one.
Danger. Speed rank 1 and composite rank 1 but the T6 draw is a genuine structural penalty at Nottingham 500m. Only 1 C&D win from 10 runs confirms the draw is costing her.
Below-average trap and poor C&D conversion rate despite consistent form. Against.
Best structural trap but no C&D wins and recent form dipped. Structural advantage not converting.
Decent C&D record and good draw, but trainer 6% win rate is the lowest in the field. A3 win last time was at a lower grade.
Worst trap at A2, only three career runs, class suitability zero. Cannot assess properly.
T2 and T3 are the structural advantages at A2 (42% combined). T4 dead draw at 14.6% from 220 runs. T6 below average at 15.1%. Composite rank 1 wins 21.5% — model reliable at A2 grade.
T1:16.9% T2:21.6% T3:20.4% T4:14.6% T5:19.2% T6:15.1%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Blackfriars Buzz | 45 | 56 | Closer |
2Deelish Denzel | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Soapbox Keli | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Skyfall Kitzie | 50 | 44 | All-Rounder |
5Proper Sandy | 72 | 0 | Fader |
6Roanna Ash | 50 | 62 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 480m | 483m | 500m | 660m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackfriars Buzz | — | — | — | 0.615 | — |
| 2 | Deelish Denzel | — | 0.600 | — | 0.611 | — |
| 3 | Soapbox Keli | 0.598 | 0.597 | — | 0.607 | 0.620 |
| 5 | Proper Sandy | — | — | 0.623 | 0.614 | — |
| 6 | Roanna Ash | — | — | — | 0.607 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.